Jets Are Biggest Daytime Value For Our Week 16 NFL Picks vs. Patriots

Jason Lake

Sunday, December 27, 2015 1:42 PM GMT

The New York Jets could win 11 games this year and miss the playoffs. They won't get any sympathy from the New England Patriots, but the Jets are still a solid NFL pick.

Jason's 2015 record as of Dec. 26: 49-48-3 ATS; 0-1 ML (-1.00 units); 25-32-1 Total

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Free NFL Pick: Jets +3.5
Best Line Offered: at Bovada

 

A half-point can make all the difference when you're betting on football. Think about all the times your NFL pick turned from a loss to a push, or a push to a win, just because of that extra half-point you were able to snag by shopping around. If you don't have accounts at multiple sportsbooks, you're leaving money on the table.

With that in mind, it's time to hand out our special Daytime BeeVee award for the Best Value on Sunday's Week 16 NFL odds board. It was a close call, but the judges here are the home office were swayed by the delicious aroma of a freshly-baked half-point. The nominees are:

Chicago +3.5 at Tampa Bay (FOX)
Indianapolis +1 at Miami (FOX)
San Francisco +11 at Detroit (FOX)
Carolina at Atlanta +7 (FOX)
New England at N.Y. Jets +3.5 (CBS)

And the winners are: the New York Jets! Here to accept the BeeVee for the Jets is team owner and chairman Woody Johnson, who... what's that? Apparently Johnson hurt his back while shoveling money into Jeb Bush's presidential campaign. We'll make sure his BeeVee gets delivered to the pawnshop of his choice.

 

Late Christmas in New York
Before we continue, full disclosure: We have the Jets (9-5 SU, 7-5-1 ATS) as a Super Bowl 50 outsider at the low, low price of +5000. They're even lower now at +10000 after flip-flopping with the 9-5 Pittsburgh Steelers for the last Wild Card berth in the AFC, even though both teams won last week. Be that as is may, we're actively cheering for New York this week.

Again, it's the buttery goodness of that extra half-point. The Patriots (12-2 SU, 7-5-2 ATS) opened as 3-point road dogs, where they remain at most locations. But as we go to press, the Jets are +3.5 at Bodog and Bovada, and +3.5 (–120) at MYBookie.ag. Getting off that magic number three is like discovering an extra present hidden behind the Festivus pole. Roughly one-sixth of NFL games end with a winning margin of three; we can make a very rough estimate that the Patriots would win Sunday's game by a field goal about 1/12th of the time. Empires were built on margins like that.

Clearly not everyone is on board with our BeeVee pick. Our consensus reports show more Wagers Placed for the Patriots than anyone else on Sunday's slate, and they're also pulling in 78 percent of the action. However, we think a small contrarian bet on New York is entirely appropriate. This is a divisional revenge game, after all, and according to trend guru Walter Cherepinsky, the Jets are 9-5 ATS in this situation since 2002. We'll buy that for a dollar.