Can a bad team such as New York, with in all likelihood a rookie quarterback, take advantage of good situations? Time will tell. Here are some dates and betting scenarios to consider.
The Jets own one of the easiest schedules in the league, and they travel the fourth-fewest miles of any franchise. Whether those factors translate into a winning season is another matter.
Below you will find the Jets’ straight-up and against-the-spread records from last year’s NFL regular season, including average margin of victory, 2017 average odds, 2017 win totals and 2018 pre-scheduled figures, and projected strength of schedule using opponents’ combined record from 2017.
2017 SU Record: 5-11 (-5.3 avg. margin)
2017 ATS Record: 8-6-2 (0.9 avg. margin)
2017 Average Line: 6.2
2017 Win Total: 3.5 (+125)
2018 Win Total 5Dimes (pre-schedule): 5 (-150)
2018 Strength of Schedule: T-25, opponents were 122-134 (.477)
Three Games to Back ATS
Patriots, Week 12
Since 2005, the Jets have covered the spread against the Patriots at least once in their bi-annual series every year outside of 2011. Under head coach Todd Bowles, New York is 4-2 ATS, topping the number in each matchup seeing a single-digit line. This will likely be the conditions when it hosts New England in Week 12. The Jets are also coming off a bye, which will make for extra rest and preparation.
Texans, Week 15; Packers, Week 16
The one betting sweet spot backing Bowles is when the Jets are spotted a field goal or more at MetLife Stadium. They are a sneaky 5-5 SU and 8-1-1 ATS, covering a 5.5 average line by an eye-catching 8.0 points per game. The Packers will surely lay as many with a healthy Aaron Rodgers under center for their Week 16 visit. We anticipate the Texans, owning the easiest schedule in the NFL, to flirt with a similar number in a much-improved campaign.
Three Games to Fade ATS
@Lions, Week 1; @Jaguars, Week 4
The Jets can’t hang with high-scoring teams, period. Behind Bowles, they are 3-15 SU versus opponents that put up 25 points or more per contest the previous season. Since 2016, New York has lost its last seven away games by double digits in this spot (1-6 ATS). Tests at the Lions (25.6), Jaguars (25.9), and Patriots (28.9) present these conditions. Detroit is a 6.5-point favorite on the NFL odds board for its season-opening matchup. Expect a slightly steeper number at Jacksonville. Avoid the divisional clash at New England in the season finale, which will likely see a double-digit spread if it harbors playoff implications
Vikings, Week 7
Bowles’ men also can’t hang with the league’s stingiest defenses. Against those allowing fewer than 19.2 points per game the previous season, New York is 0-9 SU and 1-7-1 ATS since 2015. The abovementioned Jags game triggers this scenario, as well as a home clash welcoming the Vikings. The Jets post a paltry 12.2 points per game, scoring more than 17 just once. They come up 8.5 points short of a 2.5 average line. Minnesota held opponents to 17.4 points per game in 2017, second fewest in the league. The Jets may catch more than a field goal, which is a strong value spot mentioned earlier, but we’re willing to take a stand with the road team here.
Trap Game Potential
@Bears, Week 8
The Jets are 2-7 SU and ATS in road games outside of the Eastern time zone under Bowles. The offense limps to 13.8 points per game. It’s put up 17, 3, 3, and a goose egg in four tests against a defense that yielded fewer than 22.0 point per game the previous season. Chicago surrendered 20.0 in 2017.