Jets +1.5 for NFL Picks vs. Lions' 'Predictable' Offense

Swinging Johnson

Wednesday, September 24, 2014 8:58 PM UTC

Wednesday, Sep. 24, 2014 8:58 PM UTC

Detroit beat up the Packers last week while the Jets lost a hotly contested battle with the Bears but which of these teams is poised to capture a victory in our NFL picks in Week 4?

Detroit Lions (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS)
After stumbling against the Carolina Panthers as 1 ½-point road dogs in NFL odds the Lions rebounded with a fierce defensive effort against Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers limiting that prolific offense to only a touchdown in a 19-7 victory in front of the fan friendly faithful at Ford Field. Detroit covered the one point impost with ease and proved yet again that they love the home cookin'. But it wasn't the work of Matthew Stafford nor Calvin Johnson that sealed the deal last week but rather a swarming Lions defense which currently ranks 3rd against the run and 2nd  defending the pass. 

But the road has not been kind to the Lions who are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games and must now fly to New York hot on the heels of a recent report that superstar wide receiver Calvin "Megatron" Johnson missed practice with an ankle injury he sustained late in Sunday's game. But all is not gloom and doom in Detroit (well, actually it is - have you been to Detroit lately?) as safety James Ihedigbo practiced fully for the first time all season on Wednesday and should add even more depth to an impressive Detroit defense.

Take a Look at Our Free NFL Picks to Bust Your Bookie in Week 4!

New York Jets (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS)
More impressive perhaps than their road win against the hopeless Raiders in the opening week of play was the way they lost to the Packers and last week to the Bears. There's a fight in these Jets not seen in a good long time and despite their failure to cover as 1 ½ point home chalk in NFL odds on Monday night, they never laid down and put a scare into the Bears down the stretch as Geno Smith connected on a 51-yard strike to a streaking Greg Salas. But the last gasp fell short and the Jets now find themselves in a familiar position - under .500. 

The bad news for the Jets is that the team is 1-3-1 ATS in their last five following a game in which they had an ATS loss as they did last week. The Jets are also 1-4 in their last five seasons in Week 4. Though New York's passing game has been mediocre (ranked 18th) their rushing game is ranked 2nd averaging 157.3 yards per game courtesy of the tandem of Chris Ivory and Chris Johnson. Defensively they have been almost as startlingly impressive as the Lions, ranking 9th and 1st against defending the pass and run respectively.


Free NFL Pick
My knee-jerk reaction is to bet on the better team when the spread is this tight. That team is of course the Detroit Lions who have a ferocious defense coupled with the p-o-t-e-n-t-i-a-l to be a tremendous offense. Though they did light up the Giants in Week 1 with a 35-14 home victory as 6 ½ -point betting favorites it has been their defense that has really turned heads this season. But they have been a different team on the road dating back to last season as they dropped their last three straight up and against the spread and were helpless in their only road game this season when they lost to Carolina.

Though I wouldn't bet the rent on this game I would slightly favor the Jets to make life impossible on the ground for a lackluster Lions run offense that is currently ranked 25th on the ground. This will force Stafford to go to the air often to what could be a hobbled Calvin Johnson.  A one dimensional offense is a predictable offense. Play the Jets for your NFL picks in this one.

NFL Picks: Jets +1 ½ at Pinnacle

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