Jayden Daniels NFL Player Props, Odds: Week 1
As part of our Week 1 NFL predictions, we're looking at second-overall draft pick QB Jayden Daniels making his highly anticipated debut. His Washington Commanders are on the road for a matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Daniels joins Caleb Williams (Chicago Bears) and Bo Nix (Denver Broncos) as the three rookie quarterbacks starting in Week 1 and contending by the Offensive Rookie of the Year odds. Daniels becomes Washington’s 12th starting quarterback since 2018, the most of any team in that span.
My Jayden Daniels NFL player props from the best sports betting sites analyze the impact that new head coach Dan Quinn and new offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury will have on Daniels as the Commanders look to finish the season with a winning record for the first time since 2016.
Jayden Daniels prop predictions for Week 1
- Jayden Daniels to have the most passing yards (+130 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
- Jayden Daniels longest pass completion Over 32.5 yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Jayden Daniels anytime touchdown scorer (+210 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐
NFL odds as of Saturday and subject to change. Track the NFL scores for the latest line movement and matchup info.
Jayden Daniels player props
NFL picks made Saturday; odds subject to change.
Jayden Daniels to have the most passing yards (+130) ⭐⭐⭐
Baker Mayfield is the opposing quarterback in this game. He is coming off a season in which he set career highs in completion percentage, passing yards, and passing touchdowns.
While his +28 QBR increase from two years before last year was the largest in QBR of any quarterback last season, he also lost offensive coordinator Dave Canales, with Liam Coen becoming his eighth different offensive coordinator in the last eight years.
In a game the Commanders are projected to trail, Daniels can finish with more passing yards than Mayfield. Most of our best sports betting apps have Mayfield’s O/U for passing yards set 30-31 yards higher than Daniels’.
But DraftKings’ +130 odds are a great value given that negligible difference, and bettors might be able to find more attractive odds once other sportsbooks add more head-to-head player prop options.
A $10 winning wager would return $13 in profits.
Best odds: +130 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 43.48%
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Jayden Daniels longest pass completion Over 32.5 yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Despite not seeing Daniels play a regular-season snap, this is our most confident five-star play based on his success on deep throws in college and because of the value of this number relative to other sportsbooks.
On vertical routes over the last two seasons, Daniels’ completion percentage improved from 33% to 58% (led FBS) from 2022 to 2023, and he averaged 9.5 more yards per attempt than the year prior.
But the most impressive part was that Daniels’ TD-INT ratio spiked from 6:1 in 2022 to 19-0 in 2023.
FanDuel is the only one of our best sportsbooks offering an O/U of 32.5 for this wager, as all others are at 34.5 and are juiced as high as -115 to the Over.
Thus, I am taking advantage of the extra two yards of leeway and placing a $10 wager, hoping to turn that into an $18.77 payout.
Best odds: -114 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.27%
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Jayden Daniels anytime touchdown scorer (+210) ⭐⭐
Quarterbacks do not score as often as they do in college, but this is still worth a speculative play, considering Daniels amassed over 2,100 rushing yards and had 21 rushing touchdowns his last two years in college.
Daniels also led FBS in yards per rush last season and won the Heisman Trophy mainly because he was the only FBS player with 40-plus passing touchdowns and at least ten rushing touchdowns last season.
Kyler Murray had 15 rushing touchdowns in his first two seasons under Kliff Kingsbury. I expect the new offensive coordinator to find ways for Daniels to utilize his elite rushing ability.
Unlike BetMGM’s +185 odds (and 35.09% implied probability) for this wager, DraftKings’s +210 odds are an outstanding value.
A winning $10 wager would pay out $31.
Best odds: +210 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 32.26%
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Commanders vs. Buccaneers odds
Commanders vs. Buccaneers game info
- When: Sunday, Sept. 8
- Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET
- Where: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Fla.
- How to watch: FOX
- Weather: 88 degrees, 58% chance of precipitation, wind 7 mph SSW
- Favorite: Buccaneers (-185 via BetMGM)
NFL betting odds pages
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- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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