'Under' the Contrarian NFL Pick for Eagles-Jaguars in London

eagles

Jason Lake

Tuesday, October 23, 2018 9:06 PM UTC

Tuesday, Oct. 23, 2018 9:06 PM UTC

The Jacksonville Jaguars are taking their troubles across the pond this Sunday. Should you put them in your Week 8 NFL picks instead of the Philadelphia Eagles?

Jason’s 2018-19 NFL picks record through Week 7: 4-7 ATS, 1-3 Totals

Philadelphia vs. JacksonvilleSunday, 9:30 a.m. ET; at London (NFLN)Free NFL Pick: UnderBest Line Offered: Heritage

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You’d think after thousands of years, people would get tired of invading my homeland. But no: This Sunday, the fine people of Cimmeria will once again be forced to clap and cheer as the NFL plants their flag at Wembley Stadium. Even worse, they’ll be told that the Jacksonville Jaguars (3-4 SU and ATS) are their “home” team, and not the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles (3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS). My people will not follow the directives of buffoons and liars. Well, OK, there’s Brexit.

Moving right along... these were two of last year’s Final Four teams, but it’s going to be hard for either of them to make the playoffs now – especially the Jaguars, who have dropped three straight games SU and ATS. They opened as 2.5-point underdogs on the Week 8 NFL odds board; now they’re +3 at press time, and you can even find them at +3.5 if you shop around. Looks like a standard Contrarian pick on Jacksonville this week.


Strange Tales of Fish and Chips

Not so fast, fellow traveler. Yes, the expanded consensus reports show 67.84 percent of bettors on Philadelphia, but they’re providing 73.44 percent of the amount wagered. That suggests both the sharps and recreational bettors are on the Eagles this week. The Contrarian bet is designed to fade the public and land on the sharp side. We have nowhere to land this time.

Plus, the wizards at FiveThirtyEight don’t think that Jacksonville +3.5 is enough of a line move to give us any profit margin. They have Philadelphia as a 5-point favorite for Sunday’s game, using their Elo-based magick to see into the future. It’s been a tough season for the champions thus far, but they’ve lost each of their four games by fewer than seven points. On the other hand, the Eagles have played a softer schedule than Jacksonville, leaving them at No. 17 on the efficiency charts at Football Outsiders – two spots behind the Jags.

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Jigar Desai had a few drinks. Ran into a @SEPTA pole while firing up @Eagles fans. Now he's getting free tickets for his family to next week's game in England. https://t.co/IeSDuA81Me

— JoshCornfield (@JoshCornfield) October 19, 2018
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This is why we’re recommending the "under" for your NFL picks this week. We did the same thing in Week 7; lo and behold, the Eagles lost 21-17 to the Carolina Panthers after coughing up a 17-0 lead in the fourth quarter, staying "under" 45 to hand us a much-needed victory. The target is even lower this week with the total sitting at 42 points, but at least it’s gone up from 41 at the open. That’s a noteworthy move: 41 is one of the most common end results for combined scores in the NFL. And these are two teams who are performing much better lately on defense than offense. We’ll buy that for a ha’penny.

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