60-Point Total for Rams-Saints Turns UNDER Into Contrarian Pick for Week 9

Tuesday, October 30, 2018 8:44 PM UTC

Tuesday, Oct. 30, 2018 8:44 PM UTC

Jason Lake has back-to-back cashes for the UNDER with his Contrarian NFL picks. He’s going for the turkey with the total for Sunday’s Rams-Saints game hitting 60 points.

<p style="text-align:right;"><strong><em>Jason’s 2018-19 NFL picks record through Week 8: 4-8 ATS, 2-3 Total</em><em>s</em></strong></p><h2 style="text-align:center;"><a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/nfl-football/los-angeles-rams-vs-new-orleans-saints-3452789/odds/" rel="nofollow" title="Game Odds">L.A. Rams vs. New Orleans</a></h2><h2 style="text-align:center;">Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET; New Orleans (FOX)</h2><h2 style="text-align:center;">Free NFL Pick: UNDER</h2><h2 style="text-align:center;">Best Line Offered: <a href="http://https://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=4383&amp;book=Heritage" rel="nofollow" title="Top-Rated Sportsbook">Heritage</a></h2><p>My adventures through the sports betting wilderness have been well chronicled indeed, but here’s something they probably haven’t told you yet: Tuesdays are my one true nemesis. Supernatural demons? Teeming hordes of cannibals? Mere child’s play, compared to the horrors of making <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/nfl/" rel="nofollow" title="Check Our NFL Picks">NFL picks</a> on a Tuesday. Crom! It’s too late to follow the sharps and grab those semi-soft opening lines, and too early to fade the betting public after they pile their money in over the weekend.<br /><br />The trick, most times, is to wait until closer to kick-off before putting these Contrarian picks into action. <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/nfl/jason-the-contrarian-take-under-when-jaguars-eagles-invade-london/87242/" rel="nofollow" title="Last Week's Pick">Last week’s pick</a> was the UNDER in the London matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Jacksonville Jaguars; the total was 41 at the open, 42 when we made the call on Tuesday, and 44.5 by the time Sunday rolled around. Final score: Philadelphia 24, Jacksonville 18. Timing is everything.</p><h2><strong>The Pool of the Black 60</strong></h2><p>Which brings us to this Sunday’s big matchup between the Los Angeles Rams (8-0 SU, 4-4 ATS) and the New Orleans Saints (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS). Which of these two juggernauts is the public team? Maybe the Rams, given their undefeated record. But at press time, the expanded consensus numbers at SBR have the Saints pulling in 52.19 percent of bettors, with 53.25 percent of the amount wagered, enough to move them from +1 to –2 on the <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/nfl-football" rel="nofollow" title="Live NFL Odds">NFL odds board</a>.<br /><br />This doesn’t give us the typical sharp/public dynamic we want to see, where more bettors are on one team, but more money is on the other. So we turn our attention once again to the total, where the UNDER is almost always going to be the Contrarian choice. This game opened with an ogre-sized total of 59 points, and grew to 60 points almost immediately. That is a Total Of Unusual Size. As we chronicled <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/nfl/week-9-opening-lines-nfl-odds-steaming-towards-cleveland/87311/">earlier this week</a>, the last 60-point total on record was way back in the magickal year 2004 CE. Of course we’re going to recommend the UNDER.</p><blockquote data-lang="en"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;The &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/hashtag/Saints?src=hash&amp;amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;#Saints&lt;/a&gt; took down the &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/hashtag/Vikings?src=hash&amp;amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;#Vikings&lt;/a&gt;. Can they beat the unbeaten &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/hashtag/Rams?src=hash&amp;amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;#Rams&lt;/a&gt; next?&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;“Everybody gotta come see us. Everybody. We ain’t scared of nobody. We ain’t intimidated by nobody.”&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara keeping it 💯 with me in the locker room on &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/nflnetwork?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;@nflnetwork&lt;/a&gt; &lt;a href=\"https://t.co/T71RN6ynLt\"&gt;pic.twitter.com/T71RN6ynLt&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/TomPelissero/status/1056768537082191872?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;October 29, 2018&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;\n&lt;script async src=\"https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;\n"}[/]</p></blockquote><p>The real question: Will this total get even higher? Humans are obsessed with base-ten, so the fact that we’ve hit 60 points instead of 59 might encourage casual fans to take the UNDER instead. Or they might catch “total fever” and keep pounding the OVER. It remains to be seen, but here at the home office in Cimmeria, we’re going to wait it out in case we can get an even better price on Sunday. If the total goes down instead, feel free to abandon this pick at your discretion. Choose your own adventure, fellow traveler, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.</p>
comment here