Jaguars vs. Colts NFL Picks: Look for Indianapolis to Bounce Back in Week 14

Steven Suarez

Saturday, December 12, 2015 5:53 PM UTC

Saturday, Dec. 12, 2015 5:53 PM UTC

It's an AFC South battle between Jacksonville and Indianapolis. The NFL odds have the game as a pick'em, and we're here to break down the game and come up with our NFL pick.

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NFL Pick: Colts +1 
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

Odds Overview
This one's a toss-up in the eyes of NFL oddsmakers, as they have the line at a pick'em right now. Home-field advantage is typically worth three points, as a heads up when considering the lines and what they mean. 

Looking at the total numbers can give you a general idea of what the game flow will be like, and right now there's an O/U of 45.5 posted on the NFL odds board for this Week 14 matchup. There will be no shortage of playmaking ability on the field, including names like T.Y. Hilton, Allen Robinson and more, so we're not surprised by the number that's available.


Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars are sitting at 4-8 on the season, which puts them third in the AFC South behind their upcoming opponents, the Indianapolis Colts (6-6) and the Houston Texans (6-6). They're going to have to finish the regular season on a winning run and also have a lot of other things go their way if they want to have any chance of making the playoffs, and a win over the Colts this weekend would be a great start.

Last week Jacksonville was a mess defensively in a 42-39 road loss to Tennessee. The Jaguars had no trouble scoring, with Blake Bortles and Robinson linking up for multiple touchdowns, but they weren't able to corrall Marcus Mariota and company, and that was their downfall in what was their second straight loss.

Bortles takes a 27:13 TD:INT ratio into Week 14, a very healthy ratio, and it's been fun to watch him improve. Having a big, reliable target like Robinson, who already has 1,080 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns, doesn't hurt either, and the likes of T.J. Yeldon, Allen Hurns (when healthy) and Julius Thomas have been making impacts too. As we've mentioned, it's not the offense we're worried about -- they'll be fine, but will Jacksonville's D be able to stop Indianapolis?


Indianapolis Colts
Still without Andrew Luck (likely for at least one more week), Matt Hasselbeck will again be the starter in Week 14 against the Jaguars. Hasselbeck has done a serviceable job in charge of the offense, and we're much higher on Indianapolis overall now that he's shown he's not going to be a huge liability out there.

The Colts, however, were embarrassed their last time in action, as they lost 45-10 on the road in Pittsburgh on Sunday Night Football. Indianapolis had no way of stopping Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown and the rest of the Steelers from getting whatever they wanted, and they paid dearly for that.

It's still a tight race in the AFC South though, and Indianapolis is right there with a legitimate chance of making the postseason, and they're not too far away from getting Andrew Luck back either. Don't forget about the Colts just yet.


NFL Pick
It's clear the Jaguars have made some big strides, but they've still won just four games this season, so they've got a lot of work to do.

The encouraging signs of Bortles and company having success offensively will continue, but in the end we're not sure if they're the more talented team overall when compared to Indianapolis.

With our NFL picks, we're going to be focusing on the Colts and expecting them to show up with a very competitive effort in all phases, leading to a straight up win and thus an ATS cover for those that back them. We'll ride with the experience of Hasselbeck, who's proven he can guide this team to wins, and back Indianapolis to bounce back in Week 14.

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