Jaguars Offer Good Betting Value as Home Dogs vs. Steelers

Steven Suarez

Saturday, October 4, 2014 1:41 PM GMT

We know the NFL odds will favor the Steelers over the winless Jaguars, but there could actually be value here on the home team. Let's examine the lines and see how we'd be best served approaching this Week 5 battle.

While a majority of the sites have the Steelers favored by six points, some sites have 6.5 or even 7 available for the taking if you like the value on the Jaguars.

The total has been rising, opening at 45.5 and currently trading at right around 47. You can see why, as Jacksonville has allowed at least 33 points in each of their first four games this season.

Jacksonville Jaguars in 2014-15 Regular Season: 0-4 SU, 0-4 ATS, -23.5 margin of victory

Pittsburgh Steelers in 2014-15 Regular Season: 2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS, -0.5 margin of victory

So far, it's been yet another miserable season for the Jaguars. We've gotten accustomed to seeing this team at the bottom of the barrell, and that's certainly held true in the early stages of 2014/15.

Through four games, Jacksonville has yet to win, and they've lost by an average margin of 23.5 points. It's been brutal, and it should be another difficult game up against Pittsburgh again in Week 5.

This past weekend, the Jaguars lost 33-14 in San Diego as two-touchdown underdogs in the NFL odds. They only had 320 total yards of offense, while allowing the Chargers to muster up 407 yards.

Blake Bortles started and completed 29-of-37 passes for 254 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions. Clay Harbor led the team in receiving with eight catches for 70 yards, with Allen Hurns adding five catches for 68 yards in the blowout loss. There was little help from the backfield too, as Toby Gerhart reached the end zone but only had 32 rushing yards on 10 carries. 

After another disappointing showing from Jacksonville's defense, will it just be more of the same in Week 5?

The Steelers come into town having just dropped a home game to Tampa Bay. Up 24-17 heading into the fourth quarter, Pittsburgh was left shell-shocked by the Buccaneers', who scored 10 straight points in in the final quarter to get a massive road win. You know the Steelers are going to come out motivated this weekend.

QB Ben Roethlisberger had a great performance despite his team losing. He had 314 passing yards and three touchdown passes, with Antonio Brown and trusty tight end Heath Miller acting as the two favorite targets. No surprise there. Brown had 131 receiving yards and two TDs, while Miller went for 85 yards (on 10 catches) and a score. Le'Veon Bell had 109 total yards from scrimmage but didn't manage to find the end zone.

Following that loss, Pittsburgh now stands at an even 2-2 on the season, with losses to the Buccaneers and Ravens and wins over the Panthers and Browns. They're ranked in the top 10 in both passing and rushing offense, but have been far less effective on the other side of the ball.

 

Suarez Says:
Call us crazy, but we're going to roll with Bortles and the Jaguars to cover this line at home.

We obviously know Jacksonville is the inferior overall team, but we think they'll get up for this game, the first home start of exciting rookie Bortles' NFL career. What's more, the Steelers have been pretty shaky at times this season, and they've really struggled on the defensive side of things lately. 

We don't expect it to be a popular play among the masses, but we're going to add Jacksonville to our NFL picks for Week 5, in hopes the home team can make a game of it and cover the large spread. Back the Jags.

NFL Pick: Jaguars +7 at 5Dimes

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