Week 3 NFL action features a matchup of two recent top-10 draft picks when Justin Herbert and his Los Angeles Chargers host Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars. Read on for our Jaguars-Chargers picks and predictions.
The Jacksonville Jaguars head west to California after a rousing 24-0 shut out of the Indianapolis Colts in Week 2. They'll meet a Los Angeles Chargers team smarting from a narrow 27-24 defeat at the hands of the Kansas City Chiefs, but the Bolts will be playing on 10 days of rest.
Even with all the talk of time zones, travel, and rest advantages, the outcome of the game likely hinges on the health of Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert after he suffered a rib cartilage fracture in Week 2.
Jaguars vs. Chargers Game Info
Date: Sunday, Sept. 25, 4:05 p.m. ET
Location: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
Weather: 85 degrees, 3% chance of precipitation, 12-mph winds
Jaguars vs. Chargers Odds Analysis
The Chargers were a touchdown favorite when the lines opened. The spread held firm until, almost universally, it dropped to -3 across sportsbooks with Herbert's status in doubt. He was seen throwing at Thursday's practice, but ceded to backup Chase Daniel on Friday.
As a result, the total has dropped from 47 points to 42.
Jaguars vs. Chargers Picks
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Jaguars vs. Chargers ATS Pick
Jaguars +3.5 (-115) ★★
The Chargers would be the pick at full strength, but with Herbert likely to be doubtful to play, it's worth backing the Jaguars.
Jacksonville has struggled on the West Coast and outside of Duval County. The Jaguars haven't won a road game since Dec. 15, 2019. They're 2-7 against the spread as the away team and 2-6 ATS as a road underdog since the beginning of 2021.
However, Daniel hasn't started a regular-season game since 2019. In fact, the career backup has just five starts to his name in 13 seasons.
If Herbert is out, the Jaguars are a good bet to cover and even secure the outright victory.
Jaguars vs. Chargers O/U Pick
Under 42.5 (-110) ★★
The Chargers' offensive prowess has long been a strong point, but they've yet to go above the 24-point plateau in 2022. The Under hit during both of their games so far and drew the majority of the betting money even prior to the line adjustment.
While the Chargers and Jaguars rank just outside of the top 10 in league scoring, one must take into account Herbert's potential absence.
Look for L.A. to shift its offensive game plan to running back Austin Ekeler, who's averaged just 14 carries, 37.5 rushing yards, and 45.5 receiving yards through two games. Longer drives should lead to a lower total.
Jaguars vs. Chargers Prop Pick
Kirk longest reception Over 22.5 (-110) ★★★
The early-season rapport between Lawrence and receiver Christian Kirk has been strong. The duo connected on six of 12 targets in Week 1 for 117 yards and a 49-yard reception. Then the pair followed that up with a two-touchdown outing in Week 2 that included a 26-yard hookup.
The Chargers allowed the Raiders to gain 256 yards through the air in Week 1, then they let Patrick Mahomes pass for 326 yards in Week 2. At nearly even money, it's a good bet that Lawrence and his $72-million receiver will link up for a long play.
Where to bet on Jaguars vs. Chargers Picks
Jaguars-Chargers picks made 9/22/2022 at 11:40 a.m. ET