Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Free Week 5 NFL Picks

David Lawrence

Friday, October 9, 2015 3:59 PM GMT

Tampa Bay is playing sloppy football and are 1-3 after a loss to Carolina. Only Indy has more turnovers than the Bucs, and you'd have to say that the Jaguars look like a much better 1-3 team.

Opening Odds & Line Movement

Open: -3 -113 at Pinnacle
The sportsbooks had the Buccaneers as a 3-point favorite at home when it opened, and now the NFL odds sit at -2.5 for Tampa Bay. It could go even further towards the Jaguars, who have played pretty well outside of the loss to the Patriots in which they gave up 51 points. The problem for the Jaguars is an offense that is 31st in the league in points scored per game, and they might be getting just what they need in this game against the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay is 30th in points allowed per game, even though they're 12th in yards against, and that boils down to all the turnovers their offense has been giving up. Jameis Winston's seven picks is tied with Indianapolis' Andrew Luck for the most in the league.

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Jaguars vs. Buccaneers Spread

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Jaguars vs. Buccaneers Money Line

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Jaguars vs. Buccaneers Total

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Injuries
Jacksonville suffered a huge loss as T Brandon Lindor is out for the season with a torn labrum, and now the Jags have to replace their best lineman. TE Julius Thomas might be able to catch passes this week with his broken hand, while LB Paul Posluszny has a high ankle sprain.

For Tampa Bay, DE T.J. Fatinikun is on injured  reserve thanks to a shoulder injury, but other than that, Tampa Bay is healthy. Keep an eye on the injury report, but the Bucs seem to be good on the health front. They need everyone on the field to get the best out of this team.

 

Trends
The Jaguars are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games, while the Bucs are 2-4 ATS in their last six. Tampa Bay is also 2-9 ATS in their last 11 at home, and Jacksonville is 4-5-1 ATS in their last 10 on the road. However, the Jaguars have lost 11 in a row SU away from home.

These two have met five times since 1995, most recently in December 2011. The Jaguars are 4-1 SU and ATS in those games, including 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS in Tampa Bay.

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