Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New England Patriots Free Picks

David Lawrence

Friday, September 25, 2015 11:57 PM GMT

Jacksonville pulled even with a 1-1 record by beating Miami at home last week, but they have a much tougher AFC East opponent coming up in Week 3. They head to New England, where the 2-0 Patriots are waiting after a 40-32 win over Buffalo that wasn't that close, and the Jacksonville defense are going to have their hands full dealing with Tom Brady and his merry band of weapons, led by touchdown machine Rob Gronkowski.

Opening Odds & Line Movement
Open:
-13 -106 at Pinnacle
The Patriots were always going to be a massive favorite for this NFL betting line, the only question was how high it would open at and that number was a lucky -13. That number has since gone up to -13.5 for New England at home and it wouldn't be a shock to see it go up more by kick-off. The Patriots have lit up Pittsburgh and Buffalo, and the latter was thought to be one of the defenses in contention for the #1 spot in the league. The Jaguars are ranked ninth in defense over the first two games of the season and they'll have to hold their own, but then you have the QB matchup of Brady vs. Blake Bortles, and the sportsbooks will give that to Brady every single time. Jacksonville's injury problems matter as well, but likely won’t affect the NFL odds that much.

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Injuries
The Jaguars are going to lean on rookie RB T.J. Yeldon a ton with Denard Robinson out indefinitely with a knee injury, while WR Marqise Lee is still dealing with a wonky hamstring and fellow WR Rashad Greene is gone for a few weeks with a thumb issue. TE Julius Thomas (hand) won't be back this week either, and it's iffy for T Luke Joeckel (ankle) and G Brandon Linder (shoulder), and that is just offensively. DE Andre Branch (knee), S Johnathan Cyprien (calf) and DT Sen'Derrick Marks (knee) are all major question marks.

For the Patriots, LB Dont'a Hightower (shoulder) should continue to be limited in practice, but New England's tackle leader will play this weekend. CB Logan Ryan (shoulder) and DT Dominique Easley (hip) should be monitored.

 

Trends
Jacksonville is just 3-7 SU in their last 10 games, but a decent 5-4-1 ATS, and while they're 1-9 SU on the road in their last 10, they're 4-5-1 ATS. New England is 9-1 in their last 10 at home, along with 6-3-1 ATS, and a solid 8-2 SU in 10 overall, posting a 5-4-1 ATS mark. The Patriots have dominated the Jaguars to the tune of a 9-1 SU record in 10 meetings, covering the spread six times, and they've won all six home games, covering in four.

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