Is the AFC Worth Backing Now in Super Bowl LII Early Line Futures Market?

Kevin Stott

Saturday, September 30, 2017 2:12 PM UTC

Saturday, Sep. 30, 2017 2:12 PM UTC

There often seem to be different levels of teams in all professional sports every season, and for now, it looks as if the Kansas City Chiefs and New England Patriots may be playing at an elite level above the other 30 teams in the NFL, including Matt Ryan and the undefeated and defending NFC-champion Atlanta Falcons and Ezekiel Elliott and the Dallas Cowboys.

There often seem to be different levels of teams in all professional sports every season, and for now, it looks as if the Kansas City Chiefs and New England Patriots may be playing at an elite level above the other 30 teams in the NFl, including Matt Ryan and the undefeated and defending NFC-champion Atlanta Falcons and Ezekiel Elliott and the Dallas Cowboys. 

Does The Patriots & Chiefs Presence Make the AFC Wise Early Line Super Bowl LII Futures Bet?

No Better Time Than Now To Back the AFC in Super Bowl LII Early Line Market?

Looking at the Early Line Futures Book market for Super Bowl LII we find the AFC 2½-point favorites over the NFC—the Moneyline has the AFC -135 with the NFC +115—with the game’s Total set at 54 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook). With many perceived stronger teams in the NFC like the Seattle Seahawks (1-2 SU), Green Bay Packers (3-1), Arizona Cardinals (1-2 SU) and Carolina Panthers (2-1 SU) all looking sporadic as we head into October, is taking a chance on the AFC representative now a really wise idea? As we continue on with NFL Week 4, the Kansas City Chiefs (3-0 SU, vs Washington Redskins on Monday Night Football, KC -7, 5Dimes) and the defending Super Bowl champion New England Patriots (2-1 SU, vs. Carolina Panthers on Sunday, -9 -105, Pinnacle) look to be a solid 5-7 points better than whomever they might face should one represent the AFC in Super Bowl LII by virtue of their Coaching and balance on both sides of the football. Let’s look at the Patriots and Chiefs and why the AFC giving less than a FG in the Super Bowl might be a good idea to get down on right now.

Defending Super Bowl Champions, Belichick-Brady Dynasty Boys Will Be Hard to Beat

When you have Bill Belichick as your Head Coach and Tom Brady as your starting QB, it’s sort like having John Lennon and Paul McCartney in your band, with expectations of being the best always out there along and even with an accepted public knowledge that your team is the best. And no team in any professional sport can said to be as dominant in that league as the Patriots (+445 to win Super Bowl LII, 5Dimes) are in the NFL. Nobody. There is only one dynasty going on in pro Sports right now and it’s happening in the commonwealth of Massachusetts where they swear by Dunkin’ Donuts and its coffee with anyone drinking Starbucks tantamount to one immediately being a Jets or Seahawks fan in the minds of rabid New Englanders. So far Tom Terrific and the Patriots have only lost one time—to the Chiefs at Home in Week 1, in the season opener, 42-27—and New England (+195 to win AFC, 5Dimes) has done this one thing all great teams need to do in the long run: Establish a great Defense. With Defensive Coordinator Matt Patricia leading the charge, the Patriots—last in the NFL with a 31.7 ppg mark right now—had the best Defensive Scoring Average in the NFL in 2016 at 16.4 ppg.

And all teams in the AFC—and probably the entire NFL for that matter—know that they have to build a Roster and have a culture strong enough to beat or at least hang with the powerful Patriots who have won already won 7 Super Bowls this millennium and have a record total of 9 now after last year’s dramatic comeback vs. Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons in Super Bowl LI which saw the AFC champs prevail in OT, 34-28 (Patriots-Falcons Super Bowl LII Matchup +1,485, 5Dimes). New England is a team that heads into Training Camp expecting to get to the NFL Championship every February and with icons Brady and Belichick—the Plato and Socrates of American Football—it has come relatively easy and may continue for some time with living legend Brady (age 39) saying he wants to play until he’s almost 50 unless the Chiefs can do something about it.


Chiefs Really Looking Like the Best Team in NFL Right Now With Electric and Speedy Hill and Hunt Dynamic Duo

Head Coach Andy Reid and the Chiefs (13/1 to win Super Bowl LII, Heritage) are playing the best football so far this 2017 NFL Regular Season, and Kansas City (3-0 SU/ATS) now actually has two game-breakers on Offense with the emergence of Toledo Rookie RB Kareem Hunt (47 Rushes, 477 yards, 4 TDs, 133.7 ypg) who along with WR-KR Tyreek Hill (16 Receptions, 253 yards, 2 TDs, 15.8 ypc)—who ran a blazing 4.24 second 40-yard Dash at his Pro Day at West Alabama—all of a sudden make the Chiefs a deep one on Offense with veteran starting QB Alex Smith, star TE Travis Kelce, WR Chris Conley, WR Albert Wilson, RB Charcandrick West and an able and gunslinging backup QB in Texas Tech Rookie Patrick Mahomes.

Hunt—the 86th pick in the 3rd Round of this year’s NFL Draft—has had such a great start, creative sportsbook BetOnline has created a trio of Props for the 22-year-old, including “Will Kareem Hunt Break Rookie Rushing Record?” Yes (1,809+ yards +400, No -500; “Will Kareem Hunt Have 2,000 Rushing Yards?” Yes +1,400, No -2,500; and, “Will Kareem Hunt Exceed Ezekiel Elliott Rookie Rushing Yards Total?” Yes (1,632+ yards) Yes +180, No -220). Hunt (5-10, 216, 4.66 40-yard Dash) and the Chiefs welcome Kirk Cousins and the Redskins to Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City on Monday night for a big inter-conference affair (ESPN, 8:30 pm ET; KC 6-0 ATS L6 vs. WASH). Along with Atlanta, one of the last two unbeaten teams in the NFL, Kansas City (-110 to Be Last Undefeated Team Standing, BetOnline; Falcons -110) looks like a team that can nw win anywhere at anytime and LBs Derrick Johnson, Justin Houston, Ramik Wilson and Dee Ford and the Chiefs have W12 straight games vs. AFC West and have been a great ATS team lately, W5 straight dating back to last year and cashing in 8 of L9 ATS. Money, it’s a gas. Grab that cash with both hands and make a stash.

AFC Bet Also Potentially Gets Teams Like the Steelers, Raiders, Texans, Titans, Jaguars and Ravens

Even though there could be a chasm developing between the Patriots and Chiefs and the rest of the NFL, with defending NFC champions Atlanta (3-0 SU) and Dallas (2-1 SU) probably being the closest NFC teams to this elite duo, there are a handful of other American Football Conference teams which may be representing the conference in Super Bowl LII at US Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minnesota on Sunday, February 5, 2018 (NBC, 6:30 pm ET). And it may all come down to a Patriots-Chiefs AFC Championship game in January with the Home-field Advantage quite possibly being the ultimate difference in the conference.

As mentioned, Kansas City (12/1 to win AFC, Heritage) already spanked Brady and the Patriots at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro in the Season Opener on Sept. 7, so team leader Eric Berry, Marcus Peters and the Chiefs (Chiefs-Falcons Super Bowl LII Matchup +3,025, 5Dimes) will have the Confidence needed to beat New England should the meet somewhere down the road in the Postseason and if the game is at Arrowhead Stadium, it’s hard to imagine a tougher Site for the champs, although a line for that theoretical game would have to be around Pick ‘Em.

Should neither the Patriots nor the Chiefs make the Super Bowl from the AFC, Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown and the Steelers (12/1 to win Super Bowl LII, Bovada) or maybe Derek Carr, Amari Cooper and the Oakland Raiders (1,632/1 to win Super Bowl LII, Pinnacle) will represent the AFC in Minneapolis although it’s hard to overlook how well Blake Bortles and Jacksonville (90/1 to win Super Bowl LII, 5Dimes) has looked and if Deshaun Watson keeps evolving at QB in H-Town, JJ Watt and the Texans may have something to say about it all. But for now, Logic says it’s the Patriots or Chiefs who win the AFC and it would surprise nobody if they met in the AFC Championship Game in what could be the real 60 minutes deciding who the NFL’s best team really is. The AFC has W3 straight and 13 of the L20 Super Bowls.

SUPER BOWL LII MATCHUPS VALUE PICK: Chiefs-Cowboys +4,225 (5Dimes)

SUPER BOWL LII EARLY LINE PICK: AFC -2½ (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

SUPER BOWL LII FUTURES VALUE PICK: Kansas City Chiefs 13/1 (Heritage)

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