Intriguing Quarterback Props for Week 4 NFL Picks

Matthew Jordan

Thursday, September 25, 2014 1:09 PM UTC

Thursday, Sep. 25, 2014 1:09 PM UTC

Enjoy betting on the NFL to the max with these exciting props focused on the starting Quarterbacks. These specials are offered for Week 4 and include our expert handicapper's advice.

Remember when we all thought Cleveland's Johnny Manziel would be the first rookie Quarterback to start a game this season? Now he might be the last. Two rookies get their first starts this week. They are part of Bovada's Week 4 NFL specials.


Recapping Week 3
First, to recap Week 3. I recommended 'over' 240.5 passing yards and 'over' 1.5 touchdown passes for Washington's Kirk Cousins against the Philadelphia Eagles in his first start of the year. That resulted in two easy wins as Cousins threw for a career-high 427 yards along with three TDs. Alas, Peyton Manning was not good to me in Denver's 26-20 overtime loss at Seattle in the Super Bowl rematch. I recommended Manning at -50.5 yards passing against the Seahawks' Russell Wilson, -200 to throw more TD passes than Wilson and -150 to have more interceptions than Wilson. Manning finished with 303 yards, two TDs and one pick. Wilson had 258 yards, two TDs and one pick. Three losses. If Denver had only gotten one possession in the OT, you know Manning would have won that yardage matchup at least. Alas, Seattle scored a TD the first time it had the ball and the Broncos never got to run a play. Those are the bounces we will see with QB props sometimes.


Jacksonville Jaguars: Blake Bortles
'Over/under' 250.5 passing yards for Jacksonville's Blake Bortles, 1.5 TD passes and .5 interceptions
Both yardage options are -115, the 'under' 1.5 TD passes is a -150 favorite and the 'over' .5 picks is a -250 favorite. The Jaguars tried to convince us that they weren't going to play Bortles, the No. 3 overall pick, all season, that he would sit behind Chad Henne and learn while carrying a clipboard. Yeah right. That lasted all of three games. An ineffective Henne was pulled in the Week 3 blowout loss to Indianapolis and Bortles will start Sunday at San Diego, which is by far the biggest Week 4 favorite at sportsbooks.

Bortles looked pretty good in his half of action, completing 14 of 24 for 223 yards, two TDs and two interceptions. The Jags were down 30-0 at intermission so that was mostly against a Colts prevent defense. The Chargers rank 14th in the NFL in pass yards allowed (679), No. 18 in touchdown passes given up (five) and haven't picked off a pass yet. For comparison, Buffalo's E.J. Manuel, who is essentially a rookie as he hasn't started 16 regular-season games yet in his second year, threw for 238 yards, a TD and a pick last week in the Bills' home loss to the Chargers.

Free NFL Picks: 'Over' on all these free picks. The Jaguars can't run the ball and are going to likely fall behind in a big way yet again. That should mean plenty of garbage yards, TDs and, yes, picks for Bortles.


Minnesota Vikings: Teddy Bridgewater
'Over/under' 220.5 passing yards for Minnesota's Teddy Bridgewater, 1.5 TD passes and .5 interceptions
Both yardage options are -115. The 'under' TD passes is a -200 favorite and the 'over' .5 interceptions is a -250 favorite. While Bortles could still head to the bench at some point if he struggles mightily, it appears Bridgewater will be the starter the rest of the season barring injury. That's because former starter Matt Cassel was put on injured reserve Wednesday. He broke several bones in his left foot in Sunday's loss to New Orleans. Bridgewater replaced Cassel early in the second quarter against the Saints and finished 12 of 20 for 150 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions.

Bridgewater has better weapons than Bortles does, but not by a lot. The Vikings remain without running back Adrian Peterson and they also lost starting tight end Kyle Rudolph for perhaps six weeks. Minnesota hosts Atlanta, so at least Bridgewater won't have to worry about crowd noise while on offense. The Falcons rank 25th in allowing 788 passing yards thus far, tied for third in giving up only three TD passes and tied for 15th with two interceptions.

Free NFL Pick: 'Over' yards, 'under' TD passes and 'over' interceptions.


Looking Forward
Will any QB catch a TD pass the remainder of the regular season: no -1000, yes +600
This prop is in the wake of Cincinnati's Andy Dalton catching an 18-yard touchdown pass from receiver Mohamed Sanu in the first quarter of Sunday's win over the Titans. Dalton was the first QB since Kansas City's Tyler Thigpen in 2008 to catch a TD pass. In addition, Cleveland's Johnny Manziel caught a 39-yard pass (non-scoring) from Brian Hoyer on a trick play, but it was wiped out by penalty. The NFL said it was an illegal play after the game.

Free NFL Pick: No. Coaches aren't going to want to risk injury to their most important player. 

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