Injuries Offer Good Betting Value for Week 3 NFL Picks

Jordan Sharp

Thursday, September 18, 2014 4:21 PM UTC

Thursday, Sep. 18, 2014 4:21 PM UTC

After a ton of injuries altered Week 2, will Week 3 of the NFL season be a little less damaging to teams. There are some nice NFL odds because of injuries however, and I have found two that really peak my interest. 

Bills vs. Chargers
Two of the NFL’s most undervalued offenses face off against one another on Sunday afternoon, as the Chargers head all the way to Buffalo. The NFL odds have the San Diego as a +2 ½ underdog on the road, however instead of betting against the Bills, a team no one can seem to peg right now, I think the total looks like a much better wager. At only 44 ½ points, this total is still too low for these two offenses. The Chargers dropped 30 plus points on the Seahawks last week, and I’m sure they could do the same to the Bills.

Even if their offense isn’t as on point as it was last week, the Bills’ offense should make up for that. They have a devastating run game, and combined with the vastly improved play of EJ Manuel, this game should go over the total. The over is 5-2 for the Bills in their last seven games following a SU win, and the over is 8-3-1 in the last 11 times they have been favored by three points or less.

For the Chargers, the over is now 5-2 in their last seven games in September, and while they may be in for a lapse after their big win, this is one of the lower totals of Week 3. While defenses will start to catch up soon to the flurry of offense, this total is still being undervalued.

NFL Pick: 'Over' 44 ½ at Pinnacle

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Chiefs vs. Dolphins
The Kansas City Chiefs have started the season 0-2 after winning 11 games in 2013, and now they have to go on the road into Miami to play the Dolphins. They are in danger of losing again according to the sportsbooks. The NFL odds have they as +4 underdogs, with one of the lower totals of the week at 42 points.

Event though the Dolphins are a good football team, I think the odds makers are leaving some value open on this game. The Fins should be no more than a -3 favorite, and because of this, I think the Chiefs are the play. Kansas City is a better football team than what they’ve shown so far through two games, and even with the injury to Jamaal Charles, if he can’t play, the Chiefs are still looking like a solid wager.

Miami is only 6-23 ATS in their last 29 games as a favorite of 3 ½ to 10 points, and if that isn’t enough to steer you clear of Miami, they are 15-36 ATS in their last 51 games as a home favorite.

The Chiefs on the other hand are 8-2 ATS in their last ten games on the road, and they are 4-0 ATS over the last four seasons when playing in Week 3. If they bomb this one and lose by 20 to the Dolphins, I’ll give up on the Chiefs altogether this season, but they should have one last push in them before they lay down and die in the AFC West. They have one more strike in my eyes, so take the points for your NFL picks if you agree.

NFL Pick: Chiefs +4

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