Inconsistency Makes Colts -7 over Titans the Pick

Steven Suarez

Monday, September 22, 2014 6:13 PM GMT

The Colts got their first win of the season in style, crushing the Jaguars in Jacksonville. They now head back home to Indianapolis, where they'll take part in another division affair, this time against Jake Locker and the Titans. Whats the play?

Odds Overview
Nothing surprising here. The Colts may be 1-2, but they've been far better than that record would suggest, so we get why they're favored by at least a touchdown at every NFL betting site we've checked over.

The total for this Week 4 AFC South tilt is currently quoted at 45.5 on the NFL odds.


Tennessee Titans
After surprising a lot of people with a dominant Week 1 win in Kansas City, the Titans have crashed back down to earth in a big way over the last couple of weekends.

First Tennessee was dismantled at home by Dallas, and then this past Sunday they were crushed 33-7 in Cincinnati. The Titans were sizable underdogs (+6.5) coming in, yet still didn't come close to sniffing a cover for backers.

Tennessee was actually in danger of getting shut out before notching a late garbage-time touchdown through a short Shonn Greene touchdown. The Titans turned the ball over twice and had 11 penalties for 99 yards in the loss. The run game was also shut down, as Greene ran 10 times for 33 yards and Bishop Sankey finished with 10 rushes for 61 yards. Locker added 50 yards on six run attempts.

Jake Locker was ineffective, completing only half (17-of-34) of his pass attempts for 185 yards, with zero touchdowns and two interceptions. Delanie Walker led all Tennessee wideouts with four catches for 54 yards, with Kendall Wright (44 yards) and Justin Hunter (37 yards) not doing much either. Nate Washington was held without a reception.

The Titans obviously have a lot to work on in preparation for Week 4, and the road gets no easier in Indianapolis. They'll really have to buckle down to avoid a third consecutive blowout loss.

Take a look at the betting trend that applies to this Week 4 matchup!

Indianapolis Colts
In what was the most lopsided game of Week 3, the Colts destroyed the Jaguars 44-17 on the road as seven-point favorites. It was one of the easiest ATS covers you'll see this season.

Andrew Luck dissected Jacksonville, hitting on 31-of-39 pass attempts for 370 yards with four touchdown passes and zero interceptions. Hakeem Nicks, Coby Fleener, Dwayne Allen and Ahmad Bradshaw all found the end zone, while T.Y. Hilton and Reggie Wayne totaled nine catches for 142 yards between them.

Bradshaw also chipped in with nine carries for 65 yards, with fellow running back Trent Richardson carrying 14 times for 57 yards. Indianapolis ended up with 529 yards of total offense in the blowout win.

On to the next one for Luck and company. The Colts, currently ranked fourth in passing offense and 14th in the run game, will try to pick apart a Titans defense that has been exposed both Week 2 and Week 3.

Defensively, there are still some concerns, as Indianapolis ranks 28th against the pass and 17th against the run, but Tennessee has hardly looked dominant offensively so far this season.

 

NFL Pick
After seeing the Titans crumble into pieces over the last two weeks, we're going nowhere near them with our NFL picks this weekend.

Meanwhile, the Colts looked ruthless in Jacksonville, and should have a lot of success again, this time back at home. Indianapolis is the best 1-2 team in the NFL out there right now and could continue to offer good NFL betting value over the next few weeks.

So, despite some high chalk, we're going to add the Colts to our picks this week in expectation that they'll cruise to a second straight victory over this inconsistent Tennessee team.

NFL Pick: Colts -7 at BookMaker

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