Improve Week 9 Profits With Our Updated ATS Trends NFL Picks

Kevin Stott

Thursday, November 5, 2015 11:51 AM UTC

Thursday, Nov. 5, 2015 11:51 AM UTC

There are some values to had on the Week 9 Regular Season betting board this week, but best act fast! Let's provide strong trands for the smart NFL picks of the week.

Sunday, November 8, 2015
Washington Redskins vs. New England Patriots -13½, 52 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

(FOX, Directv 711, NFL RedZone, 1 p.m. EST/10 a.m. PST): This Point Spread is still under 14 points at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook NFL odds (-13½) on Wednesday morning, so snatching this game under 14 (or buying the ½ if that’s your style) seems wise now before more money floods into the marketplace in this game. This spread will only be going one way from this point on when the Super Bowl Champion New England Patriots (6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS) and QB Tom Brady (70-48-5 ATS at Home, 59.3%) welcome Kirk Cousins and the Washington Redskins (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS) to Gillette Stadium in Foxboro on Sunday in this Week 9 game. The last time these two met was in 2011 when the host Redskins covered by ½ point, getting 7½ points in a 34-27 Loss at Home in Landover, while the last meeting here in New England was in 2007 where the Redskins were blown out, 52-7 as 15½-point underdogs. As far as one-sided Trends here, the Over may be worth consideration with the Over 48-21 ATS the L69 Patriots games on FieldTurf (Gillette), the Over 7-3 ATS in the L10 here at Gillette and the Over 8-3 ATS the L11 November games for New England. As far as ATS, the Patriots are 14-5-1 ATS in their L20 games here at Home and with Washington (21.1 ppg) a dismal 6-14 ATS the L20 games overall, backing the dependable Brady and his Skill group of TE Rob Gronkowski, RB Dion Lewis, WR Julian Edelman, WR Brandon LaFell and WR Danny Amendola, New England (35.0 PF-19.0 PA) will likely be covering the Point Spread by Halftime in this one against the perennially scuffling Redskins (0-3 on Road).

Free NFL Picks: Patriots -13½ (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

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Green Bay Packers -2½, 46½ (Westgate Las Vegas) vs. Carolina Panthers
(FOX, Directv 709, NFL RedZone, 1 p.m. EST/10 a.m. PST): QB Aaron Rodgers (32-27 ATS on Road) and the Green Bay Packers (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS) head to Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte on Sunday to face the Carolina Panthers (7-0 SU, 4-3 ATS) in this massive NFC showdown which will have great significance in the pursuit for Homefield Advantage in the conference. Both teams will be without their best WRs (Jordy Nelson, Kelvin Benjamin) here, but they have both been without them for the entire season, so the Offenses have adapted, and it looks like both these teams will coast to divisional wins in the conference this season. The last time these two met was last season where the Packers rolled as 6½-point Home favorites, 38-17, while in the last meeting here in Charlotte, Green Bay won 30-23 in 2011 but failed to cover as 10½-point Road favorites. The Packers will be coming in off a humiliating game at Denver against the Broncos in which Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers was limited to 77 Passing yards and the Broncos Defense played on of the best games on that side of the ball in years. Green Bay is now just 3-8 ATS in its L11 games in November but the Cheeseheads are 5-2 ATS the L7 on the Road here in Carolina (162 PF-110 PA), 6-2 ATS in their L8 overall and 8-3-1 ATS the L12 versus a team with a Winning Record. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook NFL Games of the Year opened the Packers up as 4½-point favorites in this showdown, while the Advanced Line in this one was -3. On Sunday, the Packers (174 PF-130 PA) were humbled in Denver as Rodgers was held to 77 Passing yards, so expect a motivated Green Bay team here which will be happy to be going up against any Defense other than the Broncos. The Packers can tie up the Homefield race in the NFC with a Win and with Carolina having played on Monday night—it held off the Colts in OT on Monday night—and having just 5 Days to prepare for this (TWTFS), Green Bay should find a way to bounce back and get the W here.

Free NFL Picks: Packers Money Line -132 (at Pinnacle)

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Atlanta Falcons -7, 45 (Pinnacle) vs. San Francisco 49ers
(FOX, Directv 712, NFL RedZone, 4:05 p.m. EST/1:05 p.m. PST): The Atlanta Falcons (6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS) and QB Matt Ryan head west to Levi’s Stadium and Santa Clara, California to face the San Francisco 49ers (2-6 SU, 3-5 ATS) and Colin Kaepernick in an inter-divisional NFL meeting in The City By The Bay. The last time these two met, the 49ers won 34-24 but failed to cover as massive 14½-point favorites in 2013 in San Francisco (Candlestick Park). The Falcons are 3-1-1 the L5 games overall against San Francisco and Atlanta is 3-1 ATS the L4 on the Road here in San Francisco. Trend-wise, the Under is the big lean here, especially with San Francisco announcing on Tuesday, it would be going with backup QB Blaine Gabbert over the struggling Kaepernick and the Niners offense trying to get used to a new signal caller the same week it sent legend TE Vernon Davis to the Broncos. The Under is 6-1-1 ATS the L8 vs. the NFC, 15-3 in the L18 in Week 9 Falcons games, 15-4 ATS the L19 Atlanta games in November and 9-2 ATS the L11 49ers games at Home. As far as the side, fading Gabbert and the 49ers is the logical pick here with San Francisco just 2-11 ATS the L13 games on Grass (Levi’s Stadium), while the Niners are just 2-7 ATS their L9 here at Home. Atlanta will be losing 3 Body Clock Hours traveling from Georgia (EST) to California (PST), although the 4 p.m. (late afternoon) start isn’t as bad and West Coast teams travelling east, and playing in the East always seem to have it the toughest. On Sunday, in Week 7 action, the Falcons (213 PF-173 PA) were upset by the Buccaneers, 23-20 at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta while Kaepernick and the 49ers (109 PF-207 PA) were trounced 27-6 in St. Louis in and NFC West affair. In the Loss, San Francisco RB Reggie Bush was hurt slipping out-of-bounds on the wicked concrete of the Edward Jones Dome, and he may have a season-ending (left) ACL tear and the 49ers are reportedly looked at Ben Tate on Monday. The Advanced Line was (Falcons minus) 5 here, but the thought is that even as bad as they have played, San Francisco can win this one as the sire often carries great weight and Atlanta and Ryan (32-30 ATS on Road) and WR Julio Jones will be a long, long way from Home. But the Falcons rank #7 in Yards Per Play (5.9) and the 49ers rank an NFL-worst (#32) in YPP with an anemic 4.7 YPP average. And that was with RB Carlos Hyde (Stress Fracture, Out) RB Bush (ACL, Possibly Out for Season) and Rugby player RB Jarryd Hayne (Released) on the San Francisco Roster. The team decided to go with Practice Squad RB Kendall Gaskins over the 27-year-old Australian Hayne (8 Rushes, 25 yards). This Point Spread was at (Falcons minus) 5 on Monday and it’s already at -7 today (Wednesday) on the Kaepernick benching news, so backing the Falcons and RB Devonta Freeman, WR Jones and TE Jacob Tamme is the logical route here, but be fast with your NFL picks and get it at 7 or less (if possible).

Free NFL Picks: Falcons -7 -105 (at BetOnline)

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Denver Broncos -4½, 45 (Station Casinos) vs. Indianapolis Colts
(CBS, Directv 714, NFL RedZone, 4:25 p.m. EST/1:25 p.m. PST): Peyton Manning and the still unbeaten Denver Broncos (7-0 SU, 5-1-1 ATS) head to familiar Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis to face the Colts (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS) in this AFC Week 9 showdown Sunday afternoon in the Hoosier State. When these two heavyweights last played, the Broncos eliminated the Colts in the first round of last year’s playoffs at Sports Authority Field in Denver, 24-13, covering as 9½-point favorites (by 1½) while the last time these two met in Indianapolis, Denver won 39-33 but got nipped by the ½ point as 6½-point favorites in 2013. Can former Colts QB Manning and his team play like they did in the humbling of Green Bay on Monday night? Indianapolis is now an enigma of sorts with seemingly lame duck Head Coach Chuck Pagano just trying to get through the Regular Season, although some have said he’ll be gone by Thanksgiving. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook made the host Colts 1-point favorites in its NFL Games of the Year while the Advanced Line was Broncos -3, so we can all see how much the Bubble has burst in terms of Colts perceptions. Trend-wise, the Over is 8-2 in the L10 meetings in this series, and the Over is also 19-6-1 in the Broncos L26 games on FieldTurf (Lucas Oil Stadium), 6-2-1 ATS the L10 Denver games in Week 9 and 8-1 ATS the L9 Colts games in the month of November. With easily the best and most athletic Defense in NFL with players like Von Miller, Aqib Talib, DeMarcus Ware, Vance Walker and Chris Harris, Jr. the Broncos (168 PF -112 PA) are in a much better head space and groove right now than the sputtering Colts (147 PF-174 PA) and look like the play here. Note, Denver 1st Quarter Unders are now 7-0 ATS this season heading in here. Although backing Denver is betting into the teeth of an unbeaten 8-0 ATS trend for Indianapolis in this series, the race for Homefield Advantage in the AFC between the Patriots, Bengals and these Broncos will give the visitors from Colorado some hidden motivation which may be lost on the hosts who seem to take two quarters to get warmed up and their heads into games this season. Don't miss out on any bets at your preferred sportsbook.

Free NFL Picks: Broncos -4½ (Station Casinos), 1st Quarter Under 7½

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