Improve Future NFL Picks by Analyzing Super Bowl 49's Expanded Consensus Reports

Jason Lake

Monday, February 2, 2015 12:46 PM UTC

Monday, Feb. 2, 2015 12:46 PM UTC

You know the world’s turned upside-down when the public isn’t betting on the New England Patriots. According to our reports, the Seahawks ended up being the popular and wrong NFL pick on Sunday.

Jason’s 2014-15 postseason record: 3-4 ATS, 3-3-1 Totals
Jason’s 2014-15 overall record: 43-54-2 ATS, 22-31-2 Totals


Well, that was a fitting end to a crazy 2014 NFL season. The Seattle Seahawks won, gave up, then nearly won the Super Bowl again in the fourth quarter of Super Bowl XLIX. But in the final minute, with the ball at the 1-yard line of the New England Patriots, Seattle tried a tricky pass play, and it backfired. Final score: New England 28, Seattle 24.

It was a pretty lousy result for us here at the home office, and we’re obviously happy to see this season over and done with. Not a lot of things made sense this year – although some retrospect should help clear things up and make next year’s NFL picks sharper. And just to kick the last nail in, it appears the betting public decided not to unload on the Patriots over the weekend. What the deuce?!

The 12th Man
That’s according to our final expanded consensus reports for Super Bowl Sunday. As expected, our surveys showed a rush of late big bets ($1,000 or more) landing on Seattle, who ended up with a 70-48 edge in that category. But where was the tidal wave of public money on the Patriots? This is the one game of the year where all those tiny public bets are supposed to drown out the sharps.

Not so. Our consensus reports showed 72 percent of the money landing on the Seahawks, coming from 46 percent of the betting populace. That’s up from 39 percent of bettors at the open. So what happened? Were casual fans that turned off by Deflategate, the same way they were by Spygate seven years ago? Were they sympathetic toward Marshawn Lynch and the way the NFL’s been treating him?


Love Plus One
We could continue to speculate, but it’ll take some more data before we can properly answer those questions. Let’s focus instead on what everyone’s wondering now: Did the books actually make money on the Patriots winning? That’s the ultimate Bizarro World scenario for any sportsbook. And in this case, the answer is: It depends. Which books are we talking about?

Judging by the different NFL odds that were available before Sunday’s kick-off, it looks like some of the books had more action on the Patriots, while others were titled toward the Seahawks. For example, the folks at 5Dimes flipped from Patriots –1 to +1 on Sunday, while Pinnacle did the opposite. We should be able to iron this out somewhat for you once the dust has cleared, but for now, don’t cry for the books.


Sing Faster, Dammit~!
We’ll be very interested to see which books ended up getting exposed, if any, on the Super Bowl props market. These are the bets that can really land the oddsmakers in trouble if someone happens to cash in a long shot – like anyone who bet on the first score of last year’s Super Bowl being a safety. No safeties this year, though. Perhaps certain books might have gotten burned when the Gatorade dumped on Bill Belichick turned out to be blue (5-1).

You have to be careful with these prop bets when you’re publishing your football odds. As there often is with the Super Bowl entertainment props, some suspicious late money came in on the OVER for the National Anthem prop at more than one book, and sure enough, Idina Menzel went OVER 2:01 (–130) by three seconds. It’s possible someone with access to Menzel’s rehearsals attempted to use that inside information for nefarious means. Expect to hear plenty about this latest Super Bowl scandal for at least a few days – until the next scandal hits the NFL.

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