Identifying Sharp Action For NFL Week 16

Ben Roethlisberger In The Snow

Tuesday, December 20, 2016 2:57 PM GMT

The store was fresh out of Maids a Milking, French Hens and Turtle Doves, so all we have for you and yours this chilly and fast-paced Holiday season is well wishes, some words about early NFL Week 16 Sharp line movement and a chalky Christmas Day pick.


NFL OVERALL ATS PICKS RECORD: 80-57-3

 

Saturday, December 24, 2016—Christmas Eve

New York Jets vs New England Patriots, 1 p.m. EST, CBS

Open: Patriots -14½, Sunday 7:56 pm 

Monday: Patriots -17 +100 

Analysis: This Point Spread shot up 2 points in 17 minutes from its earliest open, definitely Sharp money getting in early on the Patriots for this Week 16 AFC East matchup from Gillette Stadium in Foxborough on Christmas Eve day. And there are a number of reasons why: Bettors wanting to back Tom Brady and New England, whose evolved Defense (16.6 ppg, #1 NFL)—which became only the second team in 57 years outside the AFC West to hold the Broncos to 3 points or less at Home—has finally started to be recognized by some is one reason.

 

 

Another, a fade of the rudderless Jets (-116 PD)—who will decide if Ryan Fitzpatrick or Bryce Petty gets the start—and positioning, and, getting in under the Key Number of 17, knowing the Public will no doubt be backing the Patriots Friday-Saturday and that this number could reach 18.

 

 

Those few laying the 14½ points truly got the best of it. New England won 22-17 at MetLife on Nov. 27 but failed to cover ATS as 9-point favorites making the Jets 7-0 ATS L7 against the mighty Patriots with the last New England cover coming back in 2012.

 


 

San Francisco 49ers vs Los Angeles Rams, 4:25 p.m. EST, FOX

Open: Rams -3 -110, Sunday

Monday: Rams -4

Analysis: Only slight movement—purely Sharp Niners fading—in this ho ho ho-hum NFC West matchup, but most of the early Side Point Spread moves Offshore have been less than a point with Totals seeing even less drastic movement this Christmas Week, despite continued success by the Public in the NFL.

 

 

The 49ers (30-17 ATS vs. Rams since 1992) have L13 straight games since starting 1-0, and that lone Win was to this Los Angeles team playing its first game after moving the franchise west from St. Louis in Week 1, 28-0 (LA -2½, 44). Bettors fading San Francisco have gone 11-1-1 ATS L13 weeks, so this small move makes sense, but it’s hard to trust Jared Goff and the Rams Offense (14.1 ppg, #32 in NFL). Wouldn’t touch this with a 39-and-a-half-foot pole.

 


 

Arizona Cardinals vs Seattle Seahawks, 4:25 p.m. EST, FOX

Open: Seahawks - 7 -110, Sunday

Monday: Seahawks -9 -105

Analysis: This Christmas Eve NFC West matchup from CenturyLink Field in Seattle looked like it could have divisional and/or NFC Playoff implications, but the Cardinals (5-8-1) have had an awful Regular Season, and may have to think about what to do with Carson Palmer. One of the strangest looking things when looking at the current NFL standings is the small difference (48 points) is the Point Differential between Seattle (+63) and Arizona (+15).

 

 

These two played to a freakish 6-6 tie in Glendale on Oct. 23 on SNF (AZ -2½, 43) and Russell Wilson (31-15-3 ATS at Home) and the Seahawks are 4-1 ATS L5 in this series.

 


 

Sunday, December 25, 2016—Christmas Day

Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers, 4:30 p.m. EST, NFL Network

Open: Steelers -4 -110, Sunday

Monday: Steelers -5 

Analysis: Some Sharp Steelers money in this Christmas Day AFC North matchup, and for a brief moment Monday, this number hit 5½ at BookMaker and BetDSI, with immediate takeback on Baltimore. Finding Pittsburgh under 5 sees wise in this spot in The Steel City. 

 

Free NFL Pick: Steelers -4½ 

Best Line Offered: at Heritage


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