Identifying Early Sharp Action & Predicting Future Odds Direction

Kevin Stott

Tuesday, January 24, 2017 2:28 PM UTC

Tuesday, Jan. 24, 2017 2:28 PM UTC

After posting an opening Super Bowl LI point spread of 3, sportsbooks have been getting more action on the AFC champion Patriots with the majority of shops moving their moneyline on New England in the 3- to 11-cents range from early money. So will the point spread get off 3? 


Atlanta Falcons vs. New England PatriotsOpen: Patriots -3Monday Night High: Patriots -3 -125 (at Bovada)

As expected, sportsbooks Offshore and here in Las Vegas have received more early Sharp action on Tom Brady (4-0 SU vs. ATL) and the Patriots for Super Bowl LI, and with two weeks of betting on the horizon, the general consensus on Sin City’s airwaves Monday was that the majority of future money coming in from both the Sharps and majority of the Public would be on New England against the Falcons as well as the Over. The record-high Total in this NFL championship game sat at 58½ at most Offshores Monday on our live SBRodds page.



“The public is going to pound the Over,” opined two-time SuperBook SuperContest winner Steve Fezzik on the game’s Total to’s FIRST PREVIEW host RJ Bell Monday, with CG Technology’s Matthew Holt reporting heavy New England action and expecting more to come.

“I think we’re probably going to get Patriots money here, “Holt said, adding he anticipated around $20-25 million total handle with the Public accounting for around 85% of it and that he’d received two-and-a-half times as much New England money on account and a telling 11x on the Patriots on the Moneyline.

Our early SBR Consensus Monday revealed a similar imbalance with around 10x as much New England money ($1.2m-$128K) wagered with an average Patriots wager size of $556 to just $89 for Ryan Matt Ryan (730 passing yards, 7 TDs, O INTs Playoffs) and Atlanta.



So, Will This Number Ever Get Off 3?

Despite sportsbooks not wanting to get off the Key Number 3, it’s hard not to imagine the spread hitting 3½ sooner than later and causing a mini-chaos before Sharps sop it up like bees collecting pollen. “I’m pretty sure by Super Bowl weekend you’re going to see 3½’s,” said The Las Vegas Sportsline co-host Matt Youmans with Dave Cokin saying his opening number would've been 4.

The show’s guest, Station Casinos’ Chuck Esposito—who thought a new Nevada Super Bowl betting handle record was possible—also leaned toward a larger number saying, “I do think it will go a little bit higher.” And CG Technology’s Holt shared the sentiments, saying on FIRST PREVIEW, “I won’t be surprised if it [point spread] comes off 3 multiple times.”

So it’s simple. If you plan on betting AFC champions New England (-150), best do so now because this could move off 3 somewhere sooner than most think and if you like the NFC champion Atlanta (+143 ), wait for a 3½ somewhere and for a Money Line +175 and up with Falcons +190 to +200 a real possibility if Patriots money continues to flood this always over-bet market.

Early Super Bowl LI: Patriots -3 -102 Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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Remember that SBR will have complete coverage for the biggest game of the season - Stay Tuned!
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