Identifying Biggest Side Movers & Best Value NFL Picks For Week 1

Kevin Stott

Tuesday, September 6, 2016 2:57 PM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 6, 2016 2:57 PM UTC

There has been a great deal of line movement in the NFL Regular Season Week 1 odds, Let’s look at some of the biggest side movers and make some seemingly wise early week NFL picks before these numbers change for the worse.

Thursday, September 8, 2016

Carolina Panthers vs. Denver Broncos
Line Open: Broncos -1, 43½ April (at CG Technology)
Current Line: Panthers -3 -125 (at GTBets)
Definitely a healthy combination of Sharp and Public money here with so much time—all Spring and all Summer—to wager into and overanalyze this game and we have a 4-point swing and a favorite change with Sharps waiting to see what (officially) happened with Denver (26/1 to win Super Bowl, 5Dimes) QB’s Peyton Manning (Retired) and Brock Osweiler (Free Agent, signed with Houston Texans). When bettors saw the defending Super Bowl champion Broncos without a starting QB—and knowing that defending NFC champions Carolina had trusty Cam Newton who is currently priced at +650 to win NFL MVP at GTBets, which is currently offering a 100% Sign-up Bonus (up to $250) and which gets a B+ grade in the Sportsbook Review rating guide—money poured in on the Panthers for this Super Bowl 50 rematch and 2016/17 NFL Kickoff game from Sports Authority Field at Mile High Stadium in Denver.

And that’s the big thing here: This game is at Altitude and Denver doesn’t lose much at Home (28-4 SU L32 Regular Season Home Games). And with new starting QB and 24-year-old Trevor Siemian named starter by Broncos 2nd-year Head Coach Gary Kubiak (10-7-2 ATS) early enough that he and his teammates could wrap their heads around it, Denver backup, 1st Round Pick (#26) and Rookie (Memphis) Paxton Lynch (13/22, 214 yards, TD, INT) getting a full game in a QB in NFL Preseason Week 4 in Denver’s 38-17 loss to the Cardinals in Arizona in Thursday and the best Defense in the NFL (4,530 yards allowed, 18.5 ppg) behind Super Bowl 50 MVP Von Miller (100/1 to win NFL MVP, Bovada), backing the hosts here by searching sportsbooks and finding a 3½ in the current market as well as backing Denver on the Money Line is advised as well as the Under (42, 5Dimes) in what should be a very low-scoring and cautious game from both teams. Remember that the Panthers and Head Coach Ron Rivera (49-36-1 ATS) will be traveling 1,563 miles and 2 Time Zones in going from North Carolina (EDT) to Colorado (MDT) and will be playing at 5,280 feet of Altitude, always a huge advantage for the Broncos.


Free NFL Picks: Broncos +3 +110, Broncos +165, Under 42 -105
Best Line Offered: Broncos +3 +110 at Heritage, Broncos +165 at Bookmaker, Under 42 -105 at 5Dimes

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Sunday, September 11, 2016

Cleveland Browns vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Line Open: Eagles -7½, 45½, April (at CG Technology)
Current Line: Eagles -3½ -115, 41 (at BetDSI)
Definitely a bunch of Sharp action here, again because of question marks at the starting QB position, here with the line moving 4 points (from its low to its high) from April until September on doubts about Philadelphia—a team the Wiseguys fell in love with right about this time last year. So the Eagles are reportedly going with Rookie (North Dakota State) Carson Wentz (Ribs) if he is healthy here according to ESPN’s Adam Caplan, so with Sam Bradford traded to the Minnesota Vikings because of the Injury to starting QB Teddy Bridgewater and veteran Chase Daniel ready to assume the Eagles backup role for now, it seems there is value here is with the Home team as the Cleveland Browns may be the worst team in the NFL and don’t exactly have a great guy starting at QB (Robert Griffin III) going for them as the Quarterback Carousel continues in Cleveland. The Eagles are just 1-3 ATS the L4 against the Browns, but with the line shrinking from 7½ all the way down to 3½ some Offshore places (BetDSI,, the value is with Philadelphia and if you can make a 3 by buying the ½ point, then you have turned what opened at more than a TD wager into an endeavor where only a FG and some heavier juice need to be laid. And that’s smart.


Free NFL Pick: Eagles -3½ -115 
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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Cincinnati Bengals vs. New York Jets
Line Open: Bengals -1, 43, April (CG Technology)
Current Line: Bengals -2½ -115, 41½ (5Dimes)
Probably a majority of Sharp money here (fading the Jets) but also some General Public action here (backing the Bengals), once again primarily to whom the bettors perceived would be starting at QB for both teams here. For Cincinnati, the answer was obvious, with Andy Dalton (23-14-4 ATS Away) being the guy but for the J-E-T-S, Jets! Jets! Jets!, it took awhile for the silly New York franchise to realize that it already had the best thing it had going last season in Ryan Fitzpatrick (25-27-2 ATS at Home) and to simply re-sign Fitzpatrick (100/1 to win NFL MVP, Bovada) to a 1-year deal. The Bengals have been one of the best ATS teams in the NFL over the past several seasons, going an AFC-best 12-3-2 ATS (80%) last year and going 30-17-4 ATS since 2013 (63.8%), an ATS mark only surpassed by the Minnesota Vikings (33-16-0, 67.3%). 

Trend-wise in this series, the Bengals are a dismal 1-4 ATS and an even worse 0-4 ATS the L4 meetings here at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, but the Jets are 2-5-1 ATS their L8 games in September and WR AJ Green (200/1 to win NFL MVP, at Bovada) and Cincinnati are 8-0 ATS its L8 Road games, 9-3-1 ATS its L13 against the AFC and 25-9-2 ATS its L36 games in the month of September (73.5%). Cat scratch fever. 


Free NFL Pick: Bengals -2½ -115, Bengals -134 
Best Line Offered: Bengals -2½ -115 at 5Dimes, Bengals -134 at Heritage 

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Buffalo Bills vs. Baltimore Ravens
Line Open: Ravens -5, 44½ April (CG Technology)
Current Line: Ravens -3, -115 44½ (BetDSI)
This has to be mostly Sharp (or Wiseguy) action, with a 2-point line movement the way of the Underdog Bills in the almost 6 months that this line could be bet into—quite the contrast from the usual 6 days the betting public has to be into Point Spreads for the NFL Regular Season Week 2-17 slate. Why? Probably some Buffalo and Tyrod Taylor (66/1 to win NFL MVP, Bovada) hype along with some doubts about Ravens QB Joe Flacco (100/1 to win NFL MVP, Bovada), and his healing ACL and MCL injuries. But after a perfect 4-0 NFL Preseason (as well as 4-0 ATS), Baltimore seems to really hold some value here as it looks to be on the upswing this Regular Season while Buffalo and head coach Rex Ryan (8-7-1 ATS) will look for some more improvement but could be headed for a nightmare if everything goes wrong, starting here in Crab City in Week 1. The Bills are 3-0 ATS the L3 in this series, but after such a great and Defensive-oriented Ravens Preseason (allowed only 60 PA in games), gotta back and recommend Flacco (49-27-2 ATS vs. Non-Division), perennially underrated Head Coach John Harbaugh (74-63-6 ATS) and host Baltimore here at M&T Bank Stadium in their Home and Regular Season opener. Blackbirds tackling in the dead of night, take these broken knees and learn to run. 


Free NFL Pick: Ravens -3 -115 
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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Miami Dolphins vs. Seattle Seahawks
Line Open: Seahawks -8½, 44½ April (CG Technology)
Current Line: Seahawks -10½ -115, 44½ (BetDSI)
This 2-point movement is a combined avalanche of both Smart and Public action on the much superior team, the host Seattle Seahawks with the much better QB in Russell Wilson (8/1 to win NFL MVP, Bovada) and the league’s Best Scoring Defense last season (18.8 ppg). Then toss in the fact that Miami  has to travel a whopping 3,299.8 miles from Florida (EDT) to Washington state (PDT) and that the Fish  will be losing 3 Body Clock Hours going from the Sunshine State to the Evergreen State, and you have a situation rife for a 20-point blowout, especially with an excellent Head Coach on the hosts sidelines in 7th-year man Pete Carroll (62-43-2 ATS) and with the Seahawks holding the strongest Geographic advantage in the NFL. This one could go all the way to (Seattle minus) 14 if the Steam is right and best NFL bet this one right now if you like the Seahawks as when that last big wave of General Public money comes in from Thursday to Sunday, the vast majority will probably be on QB Wilson, RB Thomas Rawls (100/1 to win NFL MVP, Bovada), WR Doug Baldwin and Jimmy Graham (300/1 to win NFL MVP, Bovada) and Seattle which should benefit from all of the Preseason problems so many other teams in the NFC have had. The series Trends here actually favor QB Ryan Tannehill (13-18 ATS on Road) and the visitors from Miami (5-1 ATS L6, 3-1 ATS L4 in Seattle), but sometimes the situation an actual Rosters vastly outweigh the Trends and this is exactly one of those times. Embrace logic. 


Free NFL Pick: Seahawks -10½ -104 
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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NFL Regular Season Week 1 Line Movers Thursday Picks: Broncos +3½, at Heritage, Broncos +165 at Bookmaker, Panthers-Broncos Under 42 at 5Dimes
NFL Regular Season Week 1 Line Movers Sunday Picks: Eagles -3½ -115 at Heritage, Bengals -2½ -115 at 5Dimes, Bengals -134 at Heritage, Ravens -3 at BetDSI, Seahawks -10½ -104 at Pinnacle.
NFC Conference Futures Book Pick: Seahawks +450 at 5Dimes
NFL Super Bowl 51 Futures Book PickK: Seahawks 9/1 at Bovada
NFL Preseason Picks Record: 8-5-0

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