Huge Value on Giants Over Colts for Monday Night Football Picks

Nikki Adams

Wednesday, October 29, 2014 6:26 PM UTC

Wednesday, Oct. 29, 2014 6:26 PM UTC

For a second straight week the Indianapolis Colts are matched as the 3-point road chalk. Will the Colts bounce back on the road at the expense of the New York Giants and cover, or will the Giants defy the NFL odds. Find out as we preview this matchup and deliver our NFL betting verdict.

Indianapolis Colts (5-3, 2-2 away)
A week after being decimating the Bengals 27-0 in Indianapolis, the Colts got a taste of their own medicine by the Pittsburgh Steelers in a mind-blowing 51-34 defeat Now, the Indianapolis Colts must bounce back at the expense of the New York Giants on the road, their second road game in a row as the 3-point road chalk.

The Colts were left reeling by Big Ben and the Steelers on Sunday at Heinz Arena, a loss that snapped a five-game winning streak by the Colts. Andrew Luck accounted for 400 of the 448 yards of total offense in the defeat, all while throwing 26-of-45 passes and three touchdowns. His stellar effort sustains the Colts atop offensive rankings – first in passing offense with 336.5 yards per game, complemented by a 13th ranked rushing offense with 115.8 yards a game and a 9th ranked rushing defense that allows 99.3 yards per game. Somehow, though, Big Ben managed to outdo the prolific Luck as he led the Steelers to a whopping 639 yards in total offense. Roethlisberger alone accounted for 522 yards after throwing 40-of-49 passes and six touchdowns. Fingers point towards a suspect Colts passing defense that is 21st in the league with 252.9 yards allowed per game and let them down.

Odds makers aren’t putting much stock into week 8’s disappointing account by the Colts, obviously. The reason for that could be that they’re just chalking it to one of those rare anomalies: every team is allowed a bad day. You could also say it’s not often Big Ben puts in quite such a virtuoso performance against a serious Super Bowl contender. It’s also worth noting that the Colts had about 20 minutes of possession only in the game, yet somehow managing to account for 448 yards of total offense to almost dig out of the hole. So instead of getting carried away and changing the Colts narrative on account of one negative stanza, odds makers have decided to take a level-headed approach and send the Colts as the road chalk into week 9 NFL betting. Helping along their favourable evaluation is the dire straits the New York Giants appear to be in once again, as well as the fact that Luck has only once lost back-to-back games in his NFL career (the first two games on the NFL 2014 season).

New York Giants (3-4, 1-3 home)
High hopes preceded the New York Giants at the start of the season, but after seven weeks and a 3-4 SU mark the jury is out. Their start might not be as bad as last season’s when they couldn’t buy a win no matter how hard they tried in the first half, but it’s not exactly making the grade at below .500 after seven games.

The Giants are after a bye week that affords them with an opportunity to go back to the drawing board and regroup. Week 9 of the season has an air of importance towards the remainder of the season, a crossroad that could potentially determine which direction they take down the stretch. It goes without saying, a win at the expense of the favoured Colts is imperative if they hope to be a part of the NFC East conversation. That both Dallas and Philadelphia lost in week 8 NFL betting opens the door for the Giants, a door they’ll want to go through, surely.


NFL Betting Verdict
If Giants backers are looking for room for optimism, Colts’ porous defense affords some opportunity. The loss to the Steelers is case-and-point. Colts leak on average 23.4-points per game, which is right in the Giants’ wheelhouse. Giants average 22.0-points per game. Of course, countering the Colts offense, which produces 31.3-points per game, is going to be the challenge for a Giants defense that leaks 24.1-points per game. The furious rate at which that Colts offense can produce points is another concern for the Giants.

All in all, the wide expectation in NFL betting circles is for a Colts rebound in week 9 NFL betting. Bookies are clearly selling that notion by installing the Colts as the -175 favourites in SU betting and the 3-point favourites against the spread. Home dogs, however, do present angles for profit from time to time, particularly one as unpredictable as the Giants are at the sports betting exchange. Everything about this game screams Colts, Colts, Colts. The prolific quarterback, stats, form on the season, and overall actionable NFL odds underscores the Colts as the popular NFL pick of the week in football betting circles.  For some reason, we’re going against the grain in this game. The very unpredictable nature of the Giants alone makes it reasonably probable they would upset the NFL odds. By doing so we realise we’re predicting the Colts lose two-games in a row for the second time this season, and second time behind Andrew Luck. No trend is sacrosanct though, so anything is possible including Luck’s luck running out. Look for the Giants to come and play on Monday Night Football with purpose.

NFL Free Picks: Giants to win straight up at +160, plus the points at 5Dimes

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