It is almost here - "With the first pick in the 2017 NFL Draft the Cleveland Browns......don't know who to take." OK, having a little fun at the Browns expense and why not, they have earned it.
Talked to a few friends who work behind the counters in Nevada taking bets and they are anticipating a 25 to 40 percent increase in wagers placed on the NFL Draft from last year. It is not my place to judge, only to go with the flow. This is why we will look at certain players, who have been receiving positive and negative reviews and speculate what their draft position might be if they are an OVER or UNDER play based on what Bookmaker has them listed at for NFL odds.
LEONARD FOURNETTE, RB, LSU 2017 NFL DRAFT 1ST ROUND PICK POSITION - Over/Under 4.5
With the new staff and front office in Jacksonville more run-oriented, it seems like a foregone conclusion the Jaguars will take Fournette at No.4 making this an UNDER play. Just remember where you heard this (right or wrong); when a player is injury-prone in college, especially at running back, almost certainly he will be injured in the pros. I'm not saying Fournette will be bust, just a large disappointment. Think Beanie Wells from Ohio State.
MITCHELL TRUBISKY, QB, NORTH CAROLINA 2017 NFL DRAFT 1ST ROUND PICK POSITION - Over/Under 9.5
This should be the easiest money made in mankind. Of course, Trubisky is not a Top 10 pick. He started 13 games in college and while he graded out well in many areas scouts have looked at, he's not close to ready for the NFL. If San Francisco, Chicago, the Jets or even San Diego (Philip Rivers is not getting younger) would take him, by 2022, I and others will have mocked them for five years. Bet Under (cautiously) for NFL picks.
DALVIN COOK, RB, FLORIDA STATE 2017 NFL DRAFT 1ST ROUND PICK POSITION - Over/Under 26.5
Outside of Joe Mixon, the most potentially toxic player is Dalvin Cook. Talent-wise, Cook is top 20 material and is a real fit for either Tampa Bay or Philadelphia, but will they have the courage to take and sell him to the fan base and public outcry that will follow? Be careful, talent usually trumps character in this league, which is why the Under is possible. If Cook goes OVER as I suspect, NFL teams have some severe misgivings about him.
2017 NFL DRAFT - TOTAL QUARTERBACKS DRAFTED IN THE 1ST ROUND - Over/Under 3.5
Let's not mess around. By nearly everyone's calculations, there are three quarterbacks who should or at least are the most worthy of being a first-round draft choice. In no particular order but mine, it is Deshaun Watson, Mitch Trubisky, and Patrick Mahomes II.
That does not mean I think they should, (Only Watson IMO) but I am not drafting any players, except for fantasy football this coming August. As mentioned, Trubisky started one season at North Carolina, Mahomes has a powerful arm, yet played in Texas Tech system and the NFL is not littered with Red Raiders quarterbacks who threw for 10,000 yards season in college.
DeShone Kizer would likely have been a Top 15 pick with another year of seasoning at Notre Dame and he has enough decision-making flaws that overshadow considerable ability. And Joshua Dobbs from Tennessee is not really even worthy of being a second-round choice, let alone first.
I will stick to my beliefs NFL teams will be wise and take UNDER 3.5 for quarterbacks in the first round.