Totals have fallen for Week 4 of the preseason, assuming that starting offenses and defenses won’t be in the game long, or at all. So how should we attack these numbers for NFLX Week 4?
Week 4 & Preseason Trends
Over the last two seasons, the under has been a big boon for total bettors in the preseason. The under is 19-12-1 over the last two years in Week 4 of the preseason. While this is a relatively new trend, knowing that the under is starting to trend in Week 4 can help you identify games that may be lower scoring this week.
For 2016 overall, the under has been already a great play, cashing at 27-17-4, so be weary of this heading into the final week of the preseason. We nailed the under in Week 1 a lot and last week the under was an even better play that expected. Now here in Week 4, where we already have some established under trends, it might be a time to target some of the highest totals for the under and maybe a few more on top of that.
Ravens vs. Saints
Right now, easily the highest total of the week award goes to the Ravens and Saints, who have a Week 4 preseason total of 40 points. This could be for several reasons, but the biggest might be that the Saints plan to play their starters some in the final preseason game.
Sean Payton has already said that his starters will see about a quarter of action in the final tune-up before the regular season. This is kind of unprecedented, but Payton may feel his team needs the extra action to be prepared for Week 1. To put it in perspective, Drew Brees has not seen the field in a preseason finale since 2006, more than a decade ago.
The Ravens, on the other hand, are not playing their starters at all in the final preseason game. Baltimore has gone undefeated so far in the preseason after dropping 30 points on Detroit. However, it’s been their defense that has put up the impressive stats, limiting their opponents to an average of just 15.3 points per game in the first three weeks of exhibition play.
Also, so far in this preseason, both of these teams have been overvalued, as they are both 1-2 in the preseason, making this one an under play for me as well.
The 38-point club
After the Ravens and Saints, there are six games that have totals of 38 or 38 ½, which are the next highest numbers on the Week 4 preseason slate. The Giants vs. Patriots is easily one of the better undervalues among those, considering those two teams play one another every year in the final week of the preseason.
Not only has the under cashed easily in the last two years of preseason games between these teams, the under is 6-2 in the last eight years. The average final total for these two teams in that eight-year stretch is only 34 points.
The Seahawks and Raiders are another pair who normally play one another in the final week of the preseason, but after a long stretch of cashing the under against one another in those weeks, the last two years have seen really high scoring games. Considering the Raiders have been in some high-scoring preseason games so far, (1-1-1 in totals in preseason 2016) but haven’t overwhelmingly cashed the over, it could be a good game to bet the over if the Seahawks can be counted on for 20 points.