NFL Props Picks on Luck's Bad Luck: O/U Odds on Sacks

Matthew Jordan

Sunday, June 11, 2017 11:31 PM UTC

Sunday, Jun. 11, 2017 11:31 PM UTC

The most-sacked quarterback in the NFL since 2012 has been Indianapolis’ Andrew Luck, and it has taken a physical toll on the former No. 1 overall pick. BookMaker offers a prop on the number of times Luck is sacked in 2017.

The Indianapolis Colts fired GM Ryan Grigson back in January in large part because Grigson failed miserably to build a good offensive line to protect quarterback and franchise player Andrew Luck. Since entering the NFL as the No. 1 overall pick out of Stanford in 2012, Luck has gone down a whopping 156 times. The AFC South-rival Jacksonville Jaguars have gotten him the most, 22 times overall.

Luck was able to survive the beatings his first three seasons as he played every game. However, Luck was limited to seven games in 2015 in part due to a lacerated kidney and 15 last year. Luck hasn’t been able to take part in the Colts’ offseason activities because he’s recovering from right shoulder surgery five months ago. Last week at a town hall event, owner Jim Irsay didn't give a timetable on when Luck will begin throwing a football, but it’s expected Luck will be ready for the start of the regular season.

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BookMaker offers an NFL prop on how many times Luck will be sacked in 2017: 32.5. The ‘over’ is -145 and the ‘under’ +115. If you believe Irsay, the offensive line has been “fixed.” The projected starters are Anthony Castonzo at left tackle, Jack Mewhort at left guard, Ryan Kelly at center, Joe Haeg at right guard and Le’Raven Clark at right tackle. Those latter three were all taken in the 2016 draft, which was Grigson’s last. He has been replaced by longtime NFL scout & personnel man Chris Ballard, who was most recently with the Chiefs.

There have been 35 different starting combinations on the O-Line in Luck’s career. He has taken snaps from six centers. The Colts’ linemen have yielded an NFL-high 578 QB hits since 2012. The next-worst team is Cleveland with 545. Kelly was one of 11 rookies in the league to start all 16 games in 2016. This is the first time in Luck's career that Indianapolis is returning its key O-Line players from the previous season.

It’s not always the line’s fault that Luck is sacked as he holds on to the ball too long at times. Luck’s average release time of 2.81 seconds on his throws is below the NFL average of 2.48 seconds. Plus, the Colts often throw too much because they have struggled to run the ball.

So what of that prop? The important wording is that it’s how many times Luck is sacked, not the Colts QBs. If he misses a handful of games, it’s likely that Luck wouldn’t top 32.5. A total of 16 quarterbacks were sacked at least 33 times last year. Buffalo’s Tyrod Taylor was No. 1 in going down 42 times. Luck was tied for second-most at 41 with Cincinnati’s Andy Dalton and Seattle’s Russell Wilson.

The Colts have a three-day minicamp June 12-14 before breaking until training camp starts in late July. I’m leaning ‘under’ for my NFL pick here simply because I’m not confident Luck will play all 16 games. The Colts open the 2017 season at the Rams and are early 3-point betting favorites. 

Free NFL Pick: ‘Under’ 32.5Best Line Offered: BookMaker
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