Houston Texans vs. Atlanta Falcons: Free Week 4 NFL Picks

David Lawrence

Sunday, October 4, 2015 12:01 PM GMT

Sunday, Oct. 4, 2015 12:01 PM GMT

Texans are going to learn quickly that Matt Ryan isn't Jameis Winston, and they'll also be introduced to Julio Jones, who has been on fire to start the season. Let's review the betting odds on offer.

Opening Odds & Line Movement
Open: -5 -105 at Pinnacle 
The NFL odds for this game opened at -5 for the Falcons, then jumped to -6 and has risen to -6.5 as more and more people start to believe in the Falcons. The Georgia Dome used to be a fortress for the Falcons, but they've only been decent there in recent years. The way that their offense has looked to start the season, they could put up a ton of points on the Texans. However, the Texans still have the best defensive player in the league in J.J. Watt and Ryan might not have a lot of time to find anyone other than Jones; that being said, that isn't always a bad plan.

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Texans vs. Falcons Spread

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Texans vs. Falcons Money Line

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Texans vs. Falcons Total

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Injuries
RB Arian Foster is getting better with a groin injury, but he'll still be questionable and with Alfred Blue playing well last week, the Texans shouldn't be in a rush with him.

Jones has been dealing with a wonky hamstring all season and usually doesn't practice, which makes his start to the season that more remarkable. However, he'll be playing, unlike RB Tevin Coleman (rib) and WR Devin Hester (toe). Coleman's absence opened the door for a huge day from Devonta Freeman, so that won't be a big deal. TE Jacob Tamme (concussion) is questionable, but LB Brooks Reed (groin) might play against his former team.

 

Trends
The Texans are 2-3-1 ATS in their last five games, while the Falcons are 4-1 both SU and ATS in their last five games. The Falcons are 4-6 SU in their last 10 home games, but they've covered six times. The Texans are 4-6 SU in their last 10 on the road, but they're 6-3-1 ATS in those games.

These two have met three times since 2003, with the Texans going 2-1 SU and ATS. They've met once in Atlanta, which is when the Falcons won and covered.

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