When making your NFL picks, you can choose the dart-throwing technique, blindly side with the public, follow a betting system, or learn with the pros. Here are the most important lessons from week 3.
NFL Week 3 Recap
The Atlanta Falcons (5.5-point favourites) kicked off week 3 in fine style defeating the hapless Tampa Bay Buccaneers by a staggering score 56-14. Indeed, the writing was on the wall early as the Falcons burst out of the gates scoring 21 points in the first quarter and another 14 in the second to take a 35-0 lead into the second half. By the third quarter, the Falcons were up 56-0 and the Buccaneers were sat desolate on the sidelines.
Tale told, the favourites went 11-4 SU in week 3 and 9-6 ATS. Of those, home teams were 9-6 SU but 7-8 ATS, all while the 'over' edged ahead marginally – 8-7 in total betting. Tallying these numbers to the previous two weeks, favourites have a comprehensive 30-17 SU record in three weeks and home teams are 28-19 SU. Against the spread, favourites to underdogs are 22-24-1 – the latter gaining a marginal edge. As well, home to away teams are 19-27-1 – again the latter has had more gains. Finally, 'over/under' betting is 21-26, with the latter holding a slim edge on NFL picks.
Around the League
San Diego Chargers continue to shake up NFL betting markets. For a second straight week, the Chargers come through as the underdogs to win straight up and cover. Last week they defeated the defending champions Seattle Seahawks in San Diego, all while covering as the 4.5-point home pups. This week, they snapped the Bills’ winning form by ripping the hosts apart in a 22-10 victory in Buffalo as the nominal 1-point underdogs. San Diego are now 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS going into week 4.
The biggest underdogs against the spread to cash in at the betting window were the Oakland Raiders, covering as 14-point underdogs despite losing 16-9 to a lacklustre New England Patriots on the road.
Kansas City Chiefs got off to a slow start this season, losing back-to-back games against the Titans and Broncos. Mirror opposite of the previous season where they raced to a 9-0 start. With confidence hitting a low ahead of week 3 NFL betting, the Chiefs went to Miami as the +200 underdogs and 4-point pups only to finally snap their negative trend. Chiefs beat the Dolphins 34-15, marking the biggest underdogs to cash in SU.
On the flipside of the script, the New Orleans Saints, who were deemed the most disappointing flop both SU and ATS ahead of week 3, finally stopped the bleed. Saints (9.5-point favourites) beat the Vikings 20-9, marking the biggest NFL odds favourites to cash in against the spread.
Arguably, the most disappointing favourites in week 3 were the San Francisco 49ers whose offensive issues in the second half were conspicuous yet again. The Niners took a 14-6 lead over the Cardinals into the second half, only to frit it away. Shockingly, Kaepernick and company were held scoreless in the second half while the Cardinals reeled off 17 points to take the 23-14 home win. What’s even more shocking, Arizona Cardinals are riding roughshod over the NFC West at the moment behind a perfect 3-0 start on the season. They are ahead of divisional rivals Seattle (2-1) and San Francisco (1-2) and St. Louis (1-2). Only two other teams are undefeated in NFL betting going into Week 4: Cincinnati and Philadelphia.