Home Trends Make Patriots -6.5 vs. Ravens the NFL Pick

Jeff Grant

Thursday, January 8, 2015 2:37 PM GMT

Thursday, Jan. 8, 2015 2:37 PM GMT

New England has been known to come alive offensively in the divisional round in recent years, which makes it a top NFL pick against Baltimore at Gillette Stadium Saturday.

Winning Time
Baltimore improved its playoff record to 10-4 SU under John Harbaugh with a 30-17 victory over division rival Pittsburgh as three-point road underdogs last week, which is important to consider when looking over the NFL betting odds lines, but it was out-gained by 92 yards in that affair.

The Ravens and Patriots have battled three times during postseason play, as Saturday’s visitor owns a 2-1 advantage in that situation, with all of the meetings taking place in Foxborough. Sports bettors will be interested to know that the franchise owns a plus-14 turnover margin in those three affairs.

Since the start of the 2012-13 campaign, the squad is 4-5 SU and 5-4 ATS as underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points, with the OVER going 6-3 in that situation.

Check out what other SBR cappers predict for this high-profile matchup.

Commonplace
New England leads the league with 10 first-round byes since the current playoff format was instituted in 1990, which can’t be ignored when making your NFL betting picks, as it tries to advance to the AFC Championship Game for the fourth straight season.

The Patriots have won more than half of their games for the 14th straight year, as they look to improve upon their 18-8 playoff record since the 2000 campaign.

Offensively, the team has been at its best in its last three games in the divisional round, with Tom Brady leading the charge in scoring 40-plus points in each of those opportunities.

Over the last two-plus seasons, the franchise is 23-4 SU and 17-9-1 ATS as favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points.

 

Getting Pressure
Led by Elvis Dumervil and Terrell Suggs on the outside, the Ravens racked up the league’s second-most sacks, while also boasting the No. 2 red zone defense during the regular season.

Baltimore’s dynamic duo combined to get to opposing quarterbacks 29 times, while rookie linebacker C.J. Mosley is important to watch as well—being the only player in the league to post at least 125 tackles, three sacks and two interceptions.

 

Key Numbers
The Patriots must take care of the football to earn a SUATS victory in this high-profile matchup, as they’ve compiled a forgettable minus-14 turnover margin in their previous meetings against the Ravens in this situation.

Brady has thrown three touchdowns and seven interceptions in those three games, but he’s proven victorious in five of six regular-season meetings—passing for 1,486 yards and three scores with just three picks.

 

Prediction
I’m going to recommend that readers back the Patriots as one of their top playoff picks, as they’ve covered the number in their last eight home games versus a team with a winning road record.

Free NFL Pick:  New England Patriots -7 at Pinnacle Sports

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