Home Team to Cover in Bills v. Texans NFL Picks

Steven Suarez

Monday, September 22, 2014 6:43 PM UTC

Monday, Sep. 22, 2014 6:43 PM UTC

Both teams were disappointing in Week 3 losses, so motivation will be high to get back on the winning side this weekend. The Texans return home and are favored at the sportsbooks, but which side do we think holds the most value with our NFL picks?

Odds Overview
At the start, the Texans were favored by four points on the NFL odds board, but that number has already been bet down to 3.5 and even down to three at some sites.

The O/U as of now is at 41 points.


Buffalo Bills
The Bills were handed their first loss of the season last weekend, falling 22-10 at home to San Diego. Oddsmakers had Buffalo favored, but the favorites weren't up to the tasking, also suffering their first ATS setback.

E.J. Manuel and company were held to 292 yards of total offense, with the run game accounting for only 65 yards. Manuel was 23-of-39 for 238 yards with one touchdown, and didn't throw an interception, but he couldn't follow through and get points on the board.

Fred Jackson ran six times for 34 yards, but came through with eight receptions for 78 yards and a touchdown in the passing game. However, C.J. Spiller was held to 10 carries for 25 yards and three catches for 37 yards in a disappointing overall effort.

Elsewhere, tight end Scott Chandler finished with five catches for 74 yards, but star rookie Sammie Watkins was held in check, only mustering up two caught balls for 19 yards. He'll try to make more of an impact Sunday in Houston.

So far, the Bills have been best at stopping the run, ranking sixth in the NFL by allowing 83.7 yards per game. They've really struggled against the pass though, giving up 267.3 yards per game, the 26th best mark in the league. Offensively, Buffalo is ranked 12th in the run and 27th in the pass.


Houston Texans
The Texans were smacked around Week 3 by the Giants losing 30-17.

Ryan Fitzpatrick made quite a few mistakes, throwing three times as many interceptions as he did touchdowns. DeAndre Hopkins contributed six catches for 116 yards and Damaris Johnson caught a touchdown pass, but Andre Johnson was stifled, recording four catches for 24 yards.

In the backfield, Arian Foster was ruled out relatively late, leaving Alfred Blue as the starting running back. He found some success, running 13 times for 78 yards and adding a catch for 10 yards, but overall Houston's offense lacked spark.

It was a struggle defensively too, as the Texans were gashed by both Eli Manning (21-of-28 for 234 yards and two touchdowns) and Rashad Jennings, who had 34 rushes for 176 yards and a trip into the end zone.

Houston obviously will have a lot of areas to address in practice this week, in hopes of bouncing back with a win Week 4. We'll also have to keep checking on the status of Foster, who is dealing with a hamstring issue.

Find Out Where the Share are Looking in NFL Week 4!

NFL Pick
The Bills let down a lot of backers Week 3, as the Chargers came in and highlighted quite a few problems that need to be worked on. In all honesty, this is still a very young Buffalo team, and one that probably overachieved by opening with two consecutive wins.

The Texans were also poor last week, but they were without Foster and just couldn't get into any kind of groove in either phase. We believe they'll fare better in that department back at home, where they shut down the Redskins in a 17-6 Week 1 win. The Texans have also been great against the run in the early stages of the season, and that should give them a good advantage Week 4 against the tandem of Spiller and Jackson.

As a result, with our NFL picks, let's side with Houston to win and also cover as three-point favorites.

NFL Pick: Texans -3

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