Home & Away Trends to Aid Week 16 NFL Picks

Nikki Adams

Friday, December 19, 2014 3:17 PM UTC

Friday, Dec. 19, 2014 3:17 PM UTC

Home and away trends can have an impact on the outcome of games. We look at several matchups that sport glaring home and away trends in week 16 and serve up our NFL picks accordingly.

Colts +3.0 vs. Cowboys
Whenever Andrew Luck and the Colts are installed as the underdogs, be it at home or on the road, it's almost certainly a sharp NFL betting opportunity in the making. Colts are one of the top performers against the spread this season with a 9-4-1 ATS mark and a 7.6-point margin of victory and an average of plus 3.5-point cover. On the road, the Colts are 4-2 SU and ATS this season with a 4.2-point margin of victory, extending their road form to 9-6 SU and ATS since last term and a 2-point margin of victory.

Arguably, the most significant trend in this matchup, however, one NFL bettors should consider over and above the aforementioned, is the Cowboys' less than stellar home form. While they are enjoying an NFC East leading 10-4 SU record, they are only 3-4 SU at home. What's more, they are just 2-5 ATS at home with a 2-point margin of defeat. Since 2013, the Cowboys are just 7-8 ATS at home. Perhaps, the most damning of all is a 1-4 ATS mark as the home favourites this season with a 4.8-point margin of defeat, 4-7 ATS since 2013 with 2.7-point margin of defeat.

Free NFL Picks: Colts +3.0

Broncos -3.0 vs. Bengals 
The Broncos with a 10-5 SU on the road and a 6.1-point margin of victory since 2013 represent the best performers on the road in the league.  To refine those stats further: as away favourites, they are 9-3 SU in NFL odds with a 7.2-margin of defeat. That's a winning percentage of 75%. Indeed, of all the NFL teams, they are one of two to enjoy favourable status on the road since 2013 more often than not (Seattle is the other team). And they are one of the safer bets on the road given the 75% winning percentage to win SU.

Against the spread, Denver are 4-3 ATS this season with a 2.9-point margin of victory. Since 2013, they are 9-6 ATS as the away team with a 6.1-point margin of victory and as away favourites they are 8-4 ATS with a 7.2-margin of victory, which includes a 3-2 ATS mark this season and a 2.6-point margin of victory.

Cincinnati Bengals over the last few seasons have enjoyed good home form; they are 12-3-1 SU and 11-4-1 ATS at home with and 8.4-point margin of victory since 2013. What's more, as home underdogs, they are the perfect 3-0 SU an ATS with a 4.7-point margin of victory. Still, this season, the Bengals haven't looked infallible at home. Overall, they are 7-6-1 ATS this season with a 1.6-point margin of victory and just 3-3-1 ATS at home with a 1.6-point margin of victory.

At face value, each teams presents solid stats at home and on the road, respectively. to make the choice between either on your NFL picks a tough one. Against any other team, the Bengals, as the home pups, would strike an attractive pose. But against Peyton Manning, though, they aren't so convincing. Back the Bengals on your NFL picks if you are so brave. For our money, we're taking No.18 and the Broncos on our NFL picks.

Free NFL Picks: Broncos -3.0

Read For More Insight Into This Weekend's Matchups:

NFL Picks Against the Spread for All Week 16 Games
Free NFL Picks for All Week 16 Betting Totals
Free NFL Picks: Predicting All Week 16 Winners

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