Home/Away Trends Aid Last Minute NFL Picks for Week 12

Nikki Adams

Sunday, November 23, 2014 1:58 PM GMT

We're analysing home and away trends for week 12's NFL odds board, a week in which home favourites are garnering the most consideration by NFL bettors.

NFL Betting Trends
For the season, favourites have performed better in SU betting than against the spread. Overall faves are 106-54-1 SU but 78-76-4 ATS, while home favourites are 91-66-1 SU and 77-79-3 ATS. Last week, home favourites went both 8-6 SU but 7-7 ATS.

In this column, we look at several matchups that boast guiding home and away trends that should aid you towards placing some sharp, last-minute NFL picks.
 

Broncos -290 over Dolphins
The Broncos opened as the 8.5-point home chalk and -350 favourites to win SU across sports betting platforms. With game day looming, the Broncos have dropped to 6.5-points and -290 to win SU, a rather surprising NFL betting trend. Granted the Broncos are banged up and bruised, particularly on the offensive side of the ball. It's not something that can be dismissed entirely out of hand. But, surely, confidence couldn't have dropped so drastically.

Miami winning or covering at Mile High would be a huge step up in class for the Dolphins. Broncos are 14-1 SU at home since 2013, 5-0 SU at home this season with a 14.8-point margin of victory. They may be 3-2 ATS this season at home but when only the Colts and Chiefs were the two sides to pull off the cover at Mile High, it's again a class above the Dolphins. Do you really want to line up against the Broncos at Mile High for your NFL picks?

NFL Picks: Broncos -290 SU, plus the points.

 

Patriots -310 over Lions
Astonishingly the NFL betting lines have gone against the Patriots, from opening -340 NFL odds to -310 to win SU at home. It's not the biggest drop of the week's NFL betting board, but no less advantageous for NFL bettors hanging their hats on one of the best home records in the league. Patriots are undefeated since 2013 at home and they are 10-4 ATS with an average 13.1-point margin of victory. Lions, meanwhile, are 5-7 SU and ATS since 2013 on the road. They might be enjoying a good season, but a win at the Foxboro is a step up in class. Lions are 1-4 SU against the Patriots in their last five games.

NFL Picks: Patriots -310 SU, plus the points

 

Texans -125 over Bengals
The NFL betting lines have been hopping between 1-and 2.5-points on the spread. In SU betting markets, the Texans have been steadily shortening from -135 down to -125. Moves that can only be advantageous to NFL bettors looking for value on the home favourites for their NFL picks.

Bengals are 5-7 SU and 4-7-1 ATS on the road since 2013. Recently, they snapped a negative streak with a win in New Orleans that seems to have reinvigorated their NFL betting stock. It's hard to overlook the fact they are 0-5 SU and ATS in their last five games when playing Houston though.  Indeed, even last season's wretched Texans managed to beat the Bengals 19-13 at home. In 2012, when the Texans were enjoying a standout season, they beat the Bengals 31-10 at home.

Texans are just 5-5 SU this season, which could suggest to some NFL bettors the wrong team is being favoured. Having said that the Texans are 6-4 ATS this season, 2-2 ATS at home. Last week's win over the Browns on the road was something to behold with J.J Watt tearing the Browns to shreds and Ryan Mallet rising to the occasion in his first start.

NFL Picks: Houston -125 SU, plus the points.