Home & Away Betting Trends to Aid Your Week 17 NFL Picks

Nikki Adams

Tuesday, December 23, 2014 5:57 PM UTC

Tuesday, Dec. 23, 2014 5:57 PM UTC

Patriots, Broncos and Packers put their perfect 7-0 SU home records on the line in week 17 NFL betting. Is this triplet a lock for your NFL picks in the ultimate round of the regular season? Find out as we weigh in on their respective matchups and deliver our betting verdict.

Bills vs. Patriots -6.5
As far as home trends go, the Patriots have one of the best active home records in the NFL. They are 7-0 SU this season with a 19.7-point margin of victory and a whopping 16-0 SU since 2013 with a 14.8-point margin of victory. Take it a step further, the New England Patriots are 23-3 SU since 2012 with a 12.9-point margin of victory. To have avoided defeat at the Foxboro in two years is an impressive feat. You could say the Foxboro is the NFL's equivalent of Fort Knox.

Bills may be out of the playoffs, eliminated last week at Oakland. But they've had a standout season by their standards. They won't be making it easy for the Patriots by any stretch of the imagination. This is a divisional game players always want to get up for, pit themselves against the long-established NFC East standard and take their measure. Undoubtedly, the Bills will try to give the Patriots a run for their money and make a game of it. Winning outright in New England though is a stretch. They are only 3-4 SU on the season on the road, 5-10 since 2013 with a 5.3-point margin of defeat. The Bills are also 0-5 SU against the Patriots in their last five games at the Foxboro.

NFL Picks: Patriots -6.5 at 5Dimes


Raiders vs. Broncos -13.0
Broncos are riding a 7-0 SU winning streak at home, looking to close on a perfect 8-0 SU record against the Oakland Raiders. Consider the Raiders are a woeful 0-7 SU on the road this season with a whopping 15-point margin of defeat, the 14.5-point spread trading on the NFL odds board looks appropriate.

Broncos' 7-0 SU record at home includes a 12-point margin of victory this season on average. Since 2013, the Broncos are 16-1 SU at home with a 13.9-point margin of victory on average. Underscoring these trends is a 5-0 SU record against the Raiders in the last five meetings and a 5-1 ATS mark in the last six games.

Earlier this season, the Raiders succumbed to a 41-17 loss at home to the Broncos all while installed as the 12-point home pups. Last season, the Broncos beat the Raiders 34-14 on the road and 37-21 at Mile High.

Clearly, the Broncos have owned their divisional rivals in recent meetings and have won by double-digits. It's more likely than not these trends will hold true when the pair collides in week 17 at Mile High.

NFL Picks: Broncos -13.0 at BetOnline


Lions vs. Packers -6.5
Packers are the last team in the NFL after the Patriots and Broncos to have an undefeated home record going into week 17 NFL betting. Just like their counterparts, they'd like to close the season on a high with a win over divisional rivals Detroit Lions. Unlike the Patriots and the Broncos, however, their opponents, the Lions, have a vested interest in the outcome. The NFC North title is on the line and these two teams are sure to duke it out at Lambeau, making the NFL pick for this game less straightforward than the above two matchups as far as the spread is concerned.

Most NFL bettors are confident the Packers will win at Lambeau. After all, they've put together quite the convincing winning streak at home, highlighted by a staggering 20.7-point margin of victory on average. It's the highest margin of victory of any team in the league on home turf this season. Add to that a  15-3 SU record for the Packers against the Lions in their last 18 meetings and the case builds nicely for a Packers home win to clinch the divisional title.

Where the spread is concerned, opinion is spilt almost down the middle. Past trends between these two teams reveal rather close contests, which would make the Lions the savvy NFL pick against the spread. For our money, we like the Packers to cover as the 6.5-point home favourites for two reasons a) the Packers offense is frighteningly good at Lambeau and b) the Lions have been less than convincing in their victories of late, barely eking out wins against lesser teams.

NFL Picks: Packers -6.5 at Bookmaker


comment here