Highlighting Top Value NFL Picks Before Betting on Week 14 Games

Doug Upstone

Wednesday, December 9, 2015 1:46 PM UTC

Wednesday, Dec. 9, 2015 1:46 PM UTC

Time to address what the sportsbooks have put together for betting odds for Week 14. The key is finding value for our NFL picks, be it the spread number or situation to consider.

Having won three weeks in a row with these NFL picks, seeking that elusive 3-0 week for value plays. Not that I don't think I can go maxi the taxi every week,  but in making these three selections as a football handicapper, I really do like this collection of choices.

The present listed odds are courtesy of SBR's Live Odds Board


Buffalo Right Side Over Philadelphia
When a team beats the defending Super Bowl champions, they almost without fail get a bump from the oddsmakers. This would especially true if the champs looked just as strong the following year and appeared they could repeat. But this did not happen to Philadelphia after upset in New England. The Eagles were released as only a one-point home favorite over Buffalo and were flipped to one-digit underdogs. The consensus is Philly got a fluky victory over the Patriots and their 248 yards of total offense is more indicative of how they really played. My guess this contest is a Pick by game time and like last week with Seattle, I will follow the sportsbooks lead of saying Buffalo is the better team based on the spread and continue to forecast Philadelphia is nothing more than a Chip-wreck.

NFL Pick: Buffalo Bills PK -125 at 5Dimes

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Denver's Defense Controls Mistake-Prone Raiders
Coach Gary Kubiak has the type of team he really likes. Whether that leads to postseason success is another question, but for now, it's working rather well. Brock Osweiler is managing the Denver offense, as the offensive line has come together and the passing game is a compliment to it. The Broncos defensive is ferocious, first in total defense (284.7 YPG), sacks (41) and second in points allowed at 17.5. Denver takes on the Raiders as seven-point home favorites, which seems like a very strong number given they were -5.5 at Oakland and simple adjustment would mean the Broncos by -11.5. I can understand Peyton Manning being worth 4.5 points better than Osweiler, but given how Denver is playing, this is now a better team. Next, add in the Raiders have committed anywhere from two to four turnovers in four of past five contests and you can understand where I find the value.

NFL Pick: Denver Broncos -7 (-110) at Heritage

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New England at Right Price for Wagering Winner
Did you know every team this season which had started at least 6-0 before losing, has lost the following game also? New England became the fourth such victim this year last week with uncharacteristic miscues. With Tom Brady not having full complement of playmakers and making a few bad judgments last Sunday, the Patriots are -3 at Houston for Sunday night football. The Texans will undoubtedly be fired up and are coming off of a loss to Buffalo after posting 4-0 SU and ATS sprint. But last I checked 6-6 works out to .500, which is Houston's record and New England is 15-5 ATS away off an upset loss as a favorite, winning by 10.1 points a game.

NFL Picks: New England Patriots -3 (-110) at Pinnacle

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