Heavy Eagles Money Has Some Books Moving Super Bowl Line

Patriots Eagles

Kevin Stott

Thursday, January 25, 2018 4:04 PM UTC

Thursday, Jan. 25, 2018 4:04 PM UTC

A plethora of Eagles money has made some sportsbooks already adjust their Super Bowl LII numbers. Will that continue? And what does it for bettors leading up to the game on Feb. 4?

Super Bowl LII: Eagles vs. Patriots
Free Super Bowl LII Props Pick: 1Q Under 9½ +111Best Line Offered: Pinnacle

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Analysis

Because of a huge flow of early money on NFC champion Philadelphia on mid-afternoon Wednesday, a couple of key sportsbooks moved the point spread for Super Bowl LII down a half-point to 4½. Around 72 hours after the first lines were posted, there was an extremely heavy imbalance of Eagles action, with the SBR.com consensus numbers showing a total amount wagered of $2,388,483 on the Eagles (93.34 percent) and just $170,332 on the defending Super Bowl champion Patriots (6.66 percent). The average bet size also speaks of a Sharps vs. Squares mentality— at least for this early money wagered — with Philadelphia bets averaging $1,139 and New England bets averaging only $97, or about the same comparison as your monthly rent to your electric bill. In total wagers placed, the Eagles had seen 2,099 (54.36 percent) to the Patriots' 1,762 (45.64 percent). Of course, these numbers will level out some, and an imbalance of 93 percent to 7 percent definitely has sportsbooks pulling for the Patriots right now, with more line movement likely downward with the game not until Feb. 4 in Minneapolis.

Numbers Games

Shopping for the best side and total numbers for Super Bowl LII right now seems wise only if you are planning on betting the Eagles or the over, with the best of those numbers possibly already gone, with so much already on Philadelphia and a majority of the non-frequent, casual bettors more than willing to back the underdogs, both taking the points and on the moneyline. So it seems clear: If you want to bet the Patriots and/or the under, it's best to wait; these numbers might go as low as (NE minus) 4 in the sides market and as high as 49 in the totals market. Right now, the best price on the NFL odds board for those wanting to take future Hall of Famer Tom Brady (-125 to win Super Bowl LII MVP, BetOnline) and the Patriots is -4½ -105 at Heritage. The best lines at major offshore sportsbooks for backers of Nick Foles (+350 MVP, BetOnline) and Philadelphia are the +5 -102 at 5Dimes and +5 -104 at Pinnacle.

In the totals market, after an early quick jump from an opening 46½ to 48 on Sunday night, we’ve seen several offshores at 48½ (5Dimes, Bovada, Intertops) with most staying on 48 ... for now. Looking at past Super Bowls and movement over the two-week betting period, plus this early sputtering up to 48½, logic dictates more over money will keep trickling in with many bettors remembering what they saw last (Philadelphia scoring easily on a tough Vikings defense) and those infrequent, often once-a-year bettors who want action on the game more than likely to back the over. That means if you like and plan on backing the over, it might be best to bet it now while the number is still at 48 in some sportsbooks.

In the moneyline marketplace, there is some perceived value now with Rob Gronkowski (12/1 MVP, BetOnline) and the Patriots, with heavy Eagles money driving the line down from an opening (New England minus) -255 to as low as (a best line available) -190 at Bovada, a 60-cent difference in just three days. Those looking for the best price on Zach Ertz (20/1 MVP, BetOnline), LeGarrette Blount (33/1 MVP, BetOnline) and the Eagles can find a (current) moneyline high of +190 at Pinnacle, so the day(s) of getting the Eagles at +200 or more on the moneyline are probably gone for good with this huge early flow of money on Philadelphia (+110 Team To Score First, 5Dimes).

So the early tea leaves look like those who are intent on backing the Eagles and/or the over might want to lock in to some positions, while those who will be betting on Danny Amendola (14/1 MVP, BetOnline) and the Patriots (-138 Team To Score First, Heritage) and/or the under might be prudent to wait and see how much these numbers change. It seems 4 and 49 would be good numbers to react on, with even (NE minus) 3½ and 49½ or 50 not out of the realm of possibility considering so much volume is always bet on the Super Bowl and there's more than enough time to get down on the game.

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