Handicapper Suggests Betting Broncos Over Patriots ATS

Nikki Adams

Wednesday, October 29, 2014 12:47 PM UTC

Wednesday, Oct. 29, 2014 12:47 PM UTC

The AFC clash between the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots practically leaps off the week 9 NFL odds page as the must-see billing. Join us as we analyse this highly anticipated clash and serve up our choice NFL picks against the spread.

Denver Broncos (6-1, 1-1 away)
It’s week 9 and the Broncos are only playing their third road game of the season; talk about a favourable schedule to start the season. Of course, this means the Broncos are faced with five away games down the stretch, beginning with the Patriots who are just starting to flex their Super Bowl calibre muscles behind a four-game winning streak.

Broncos have split their road games this season. They lost 27-20 in overtime to Seattle Seahawks, but not before Peyton Manning threw a late touchdown and completed a successful two-point conversion to send the game into overtime. Alas, the coin toss went the way of the Seahawks and Russell Wilson made certain Peyton Manning would even get to touch the ball or attempt a drive by scoring a game-winning touchdown in overtime. So dangerous is the man in orange that Russell Wilson wasn’t going to take the chance.

In their second road game of the season, the Broncos pummelled the New York Jets 37-17. The Jets defense did get after Peyton Manning, put a lot of pressure on him. In the end, the quality of Peyton Manning and the depth of his offense emerged victorious. Peyton went 22-of-33 for 237 yards and three touchdowns.

Overall, the Broncos are 6-1 SU on the season but 4-3 ATS. In fact, their first three games they failed to cover. Since beating the Cardinals 41-20 in week 5 NFL betting, the Broncos have cashed against the spread each and every week. (They are 4-0 in the last four weeks against the spread.)


New England Patriots (6-2, 4-0 home)
The New England Patriots’ perfect 4-0 SU record at home this season notwithstanding, odds makers send them into their upcoming clash with Peyton Manning and the Broncos at this significant disadvantage by their lofty standards, matched as the +140 home underdogs and the 3-point home pups on the spread.

Though Tom Brady has bounced back since his forgettable outing at Arrowhead in week 4 of NFL betting, the drumming by the Chiefs 41-14 well and truly behind him as he’s lifted the Patriots to the top of the AFC East standings on the back of a four-game winning streak, including an awe-inspiring 51-23 win over the Bears last weekend, bookies don’t appear to be giving him enough credit. Nor do they seem to be putting much stock in recent NFL betting trends between these two outfits, which clearly point towards the New England Patriots.

Football-betting exchanges have taken stock of Peyton Manning’s prolific form this season at the expense of his New England counterpart. Peyton Manning leads the league with 22 touchdowns (he also has just three interceptions, 8 sacks and averages 305 yards per game). Tom Brady, by comparison, has 18 touchdowns (fifth best in the league), along with two interceptions, 13 sacks and he averages 257 yards per game).

As far as NFL betting trends go, Patriots are 4-1 SU against the Broncos in their last five games. Broncos won their AFC Championship clash last season 26-16, but lost their regular season clash at the Foxborough 34-31 in overtime. Indeed, that win over the Patriots snapped a four-game losing streak that included a 31-21 defeat in October of 2012, 45-10 defeat in January 2012 and a 41-23 defeat in December of 2011.


NFL Betting Verdict
Despite the evidence to the contrary, odds makers match the Broncos as the road favourites when they descend on the Foxborough. That the Patriots have the edge in recent clashes is clearly being downplayed. The reason for that is probably Peyton Manning, who looks unstoppable at the moment.

But is it going to be so straightforward? If the betting public were any indication, split down the middle as they are, it’s probably not going to be as cut and dry as the 3-point NFL betting spread suggests. That’s because while the Broncos et al have been playing sublime football from the start, getting better as we move deeper into the NFL season, the Patriots are just starting to look like a solid team again. By the numbers, the Broncos and Patriots are comparable – the former is averaging 32-points per game while the latter is averaging 29.8-points per game. Defense is allowing 20.3 points per game for the Broncos compared to 22.1-points per game by Patriots. There are many more comparable variables that lend value to both sides, prompting this near 50-50 split in NFL betting circles. So whichever side you back on your NFL picks, rest assured there’s good reason to be confident.

For our money, we’re going with the bookmakers here and siding with the Broncos on our NFL picks. Our reasoning is as follows: the only real quality outfits the Patriots faced this season were the Kansas City Chiefs and the Cincinnati Bengals. The first didn’t go so well behind a 41-14 away loss. The second did as they beat the Bengals 43-17 at home. This is the third credible opponent, second on home turf, but their biggest challenge of the lot. We’re not so sure the Patriots are up to the challenge as they’ve been in previous seasons.

NFL Picks: Broncos -3.0 at 5Dimes

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