The Packers 2018 NFL regular-season schedule is as tough as it gets from Weeks 8-12 with four road contests all against playoff teams. Check it out here, and see what games you should circle on the calendar to play and fade against the spread.
Packers QB Aaron Rodgers will be 100 percent healthy in 2018, which should make every team in the NFC worried. The two-time MVP missed nine games last season due to a broken collarbone and subsequent season-ending surgery. Green Bay went 3-6 SU with backup Brett Hundley under center. Armed with new free-agent signing tight end Jimmy Graham, many are expecting big numbers from arguably the NFL’s best quarterback. Poor health is the only thing that can truly trip Rodgers and the Pack up. Since 2009, the Green Bay has won 10 games or more in every season Rodgers has played more than 10 contests.
Below you will find the Packers’ straight-up and against-the-spread records from last year’s NFL regular season, including average margin of victory, 2017 average odds, 2017 win totals, 2018 pre-schedule betting win total and projected strength of schedule using opponents’ combined record from 2017.
2017 SU Record: 7-9 (-4.0 avg. margin)
2017 ATS Record: 7-9 (-2.4 avg. margin)
2017 Average Line: 1.6
2017 Win Total: 10.5 (+120)
2018 5Dimes Win Total (pre-schedule): 10.0 (+120)
2018 Strength of Schedule: 1st, opponents were 138-118 (53.9 percent)Three Games to Back ATS
Vikings, Week 2 & Falcons, Week 14
Green Bay plays up to expectations hosting good teams from the previous season while the betting favorite at Lambeau Field. With Rodgers starting, the Pack are 25-3 SU and 22-6 ATS all-time laying points against foes with a positive average scoring margin from the prior year. The Vikings (8.1), Falcons (2.4), and Lions (2.1) fit the bill for 2018. Detroit visits in Week 17, so tread cautiously as it could serve as a meaningless game with Rodgers sitting out.
@ Bears, Week 16
Rodgers is 15-4 SU and 14-5 ATS against the Bears in his career, covering a -5.5 average line by 4.9 points per game. Green Bay has dropped just two of 12 clashes against the number when catching points or laying less than a touchdown. Advanced lines will see the Pack favored by slightly more than a field goal against a reborn and rugged Chicago D. Rodgers will roll once again.
Three Games to Fade ATS
@49ers, Week 6
Under head coach Mike McCarthy, the Packers are just 7-9 SU and ATS on Monday night. Rodgers started in 11 games, the franchise going 6-5 SU and ATS overall. Most of the damage has come on the road, but something about the extra preparation doesn’t bode well for Mac’s men.
@Rams, Week 8 & @Patriots, Week 9
Advanced lines will see Green Bay catching points in easily one of the most difficult back-to-back tests for any team in the league. This is bad news for Pack backers. Rodgers is 3-17 SU and 6-14 ATS as a starter when catching points on the road against NFC foes, losing by 8.3 points per game. Pretty ugly when you consider the Pack kick off with a 3.4 average line. Follow this up against the Super Bowl champs? Ouch.
Trap Game Potential
Dolphins, Week 10
Everything about this date stinks. Not only does this game follow the Rams-Pats one-two punch, but Green Bay travels to the Seahawks and Vikings immediately after. Both those games will have huge playoff implications. This is like a look-ahead double whammy. Green Bay will have to blow this date off. Fade time.