Grab Browns at -6 Over Buccaneers Before NFL Odds Spike

Swinging Johnson

Monday, October 27, 2014 5:57 PM UTC

Monday, Oct. 27, 2014 5:57 PM UTC

The Bucs have been plundered all season and limp into Cleveland with a 1-6 record while the Browns covered the 6 ½ point impost in NFL odds last week by defeating the Raiders. But which side gives us the best chance to cash in our NFL picks on Sunday?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-6 SU, 2-5 ATS)
The Bucs were blanked in the first-half of their game against Minnesota last week and when the third quarter began they were eyeballing a 10-0 deficit that they erased in the second half with two field goals and a seven-yard flare pass from Mike Glennon to Austin Seferian-Jenkins. The Vikings received the ball and drove to within field goal distance, knotting the score as time expired in regulation.  But then the man that hauled in Tampa Bay’s only touchdown of the day, Austin Seferian-Jenkins, was stripped of a 10 yard reception and the fumble fell into the hands of a Viking defender who ran it back 27 yards and secured the 19-13 victory for Minnesota in overtime.

Tampa Bay has now lost all four games at home and fell for the 16th consecutive game in which their opponent has scored first. The team has failed to cover the NFL odds in all of their home games but is surprisingly 2-1 ATS on the road with a blowout loss to the Falcons as seven-point road pups but had close encounters with the Steelers and Saints being installed as seven and eleven point underdogs in NFL odds respectively. Imagine that the Bucs could keep it relatively close against two teams that had jaw-dropping offensive days last week yet failed to cover the spread against far more pedestrian offenses like Carolina, St. Louis and Minnesota.


Cleveland Browns (4-3 SU, 4-2-1 ATS)
The Browns struggled mightily on offense but they can thank the scheduling gods they were hosting the hapless Oakland Raiders who do not have the wherewithal to take advantage of an anemic opposing offense. Cleveland took a 9-0 lead courtesy of Billy Cundiff’s foot but this game was far from over as the Raiders managed a pair of field goals themselves before the first half ended. When the second half began the Browns defense continued to make big hits and apply pressure which ultimately resulted in a turnover that Browns’ quarterback Bobby Hoyer was able to convert. When the dust settled the Browns not only won the game 23-13 but covered the number in NFL odds as 6 ½ point home favorites.

Cleveland QB Brian Hoyer ended the day on 19-of-28 passing for 275 yards and one touchdown pass. He was sacked only once and it was a workmanlike though far from spectacular performance. To his credit Hoyer faced five man rushes early and often but was undeterred as he completed 9-of 12 passes for 101 yards and one touchdown when faced with the Raider’s blitz defense. Conversely the Browns rushing attack could be labeled more of a minor affront as they garnered only 39 yards on 25 carries. It should be noted however that their run game has been severely diminished since the absence of starting center Alex Mack who went down with a broken fibula in Week 6. Since that time the Browns have averaged a yard and a half less per rush without the big man in the middle.


Free NFL Pick
While it’s true the Browns have had difficulty stopping the run (ranked 30th surrendering an average of 143.4 yards per game) they did hold the tandem of Darren McFadden and Maurice Jones-Drew to 67 rushing yards on 18 carries. Now consider that the Bucs are bringing in the 28th ranked passing and the 29th ranked rushing attacks. Doug Martin of the Bucs is not the wunderkind he has been in years past and left last week’s contest with an ankle injury giving way to Bobby Rainey who was definitely the more effective of the two.

Call me Chalkie Von Chalkowitz but I wouldn’t bet this year’s edition of the Tampa Bay Bucs with your money. The Cleveland defense hits hard and are opportunistic ball hawks to boot which should scare the hell out of Bucs quarterback Mike Glennon who looked petrified last week and was sacked on six occasions. In addition, have you noticed that the teams in which Tampa Bay has failed to cover all sport stout defensive units? Currently the NFL odds on this one are trending high as Cleveland opened as six-point favorites but that number is climbing. If you act fast you can still get Cleveland -6 in your NFL picks but don’t delay.

NFL Picks: Cleveland -6 at

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