Giants vs. Bills NFL Picks: High-Scoring Game Expected so Take 'Over' 46

Jason Lake

Wednesday, September 30, 2015 7:17 PM UTC

Wednesday, Sep. 30, 2015 7:17 PM UTC

The New York Giants and Buffalo Bills each have the OVER at 2-1 this year. They've also got one of the highest totals on the NFL odds board for Sunday's contest.

Jason's 2015 record as of Sept. 30: 12-7 ATS; 0-1 ML (-1.00 units); 6-9 Total

Weren't the Buffalo Bills supposed to have one of the best defenses in the NFL? That might still be the case, but it wasn't in Week 2, when the New England Patriots came to town and won 40-32 (OVER 45). Between that debacle and the rise of QB Tyrod Taylor, the Bills have the OVER at 2-1 thus far. What is this, 1990?

Speaking of which, the New York Giants return to Buffalo this Sunday (1:00 p.m. ET, FOX). The Giants also have the OVER at 2-1, thanks again to a decent offense and a suspect defense. No wonder we're looking at one of the highest totals on the Week 4 NFL odds board. Yes, 47 points qualifies as a high total this year. And 93 percent of bettors are pounding the OVER as we go to press. Who are we to argue with that?


I'm a Running Back, Not a Mind-Reader
Well, there are two problems that we could point out: Bills RB LeSean McCoy and WR Sammy Watkins. Both players could miss Sunday's game after sitting out practice on Wednesday, McCoy with a lingering hamstring issue and Watkins with a strained calf. McCoy's injury appears to be more problematic.

Good thing the Bills have plenty of running backs. Karlos Williams did the honors last week against the Miami Dolphins, romping for 110 yards and a touchdown on just 12 carries. Buffalo didn't seem to miss Watkins too badly, either; WR Percy Harvin (seven catches on eight targets) continues to thrive in his new environment, and TE Charles Clay stepped up against Miami with five catches and a touchdown on seven targets. Final score: Buffalo 41, Miami 14 (OVER 43.5).


The Ereck Flowers Pops
As for the Giants, they shot themselves in the foot in their first two games before beating Washington 32-31 (OVER 45) last week. From an efficiency perspective, the Big Blue offense ranks No. 10 overall; unfortunately, WR Victor Cruz doesn't look like he'll be joining the fun after he aggravated his calf injury during Wednesday's practice. Phooey.

We're also waiting word on two other players of importance for our NFL picks: LT Ereck Flowers (ankle) and CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (concussion). It looks good for both players to suit up on Sunday, so we'll call it a wash when it comes to betting on the total. Flowers might be the more important player for our purposes; he was New York's first-round pick this year out of the Miami Hurricanes program, where he was named Second-team All-ACC in 2014.

Weather-wise, we've got a 50-percent chance of precipitation at kick-off, in what should be the start of three days of rain over Ralph Wilson Stadium. That's not going to help the OVER much, and we're never too impressed with a total in the 40s. But we'll side with the sharps and recommend a suitably small wager on the OVER. May the prolate spheroid be with you.

NFL Pick: Take OVER 46 (–106) at Pinnacle

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