Ghastly ATS Record Signals NFL Pick for Chiefs vs. Cardinals

Joe Gavazzi

Tuesday, August 11, 2015 5:56 PM UTC

Tuesday, Aug. 11, 2015 5:56 PM UTC

When betting the point spread, it's important to take historical trends into consideration. Such is the case for Saturday's preseason match between the Arizona Cardinals and the Kansas City Chiefs.

KC Chiefs vs. Arizona Cardinals (-3) 9:00 ET
The KC Chiefs visit the Arizona Cardinals at the University of Phoenix Stadium for this 9:00 ET kickoff.  Each team will be taking to the field for the first time this preseason.  Each of these teams finished with winning records last season.  But, while the 11-6 SU Cardinals made the promised playoff land, such was not the case for the 9-7 SU KC Chiefs, who finished 1 game shy.  Normally, this would signal a play on underdog KC in Game 1 of the preseason.  But, the histories of each of these teams and coaches are so divergent that we can only consider a play on the hometown Cardinals in this one.  

The KC franchise has the worst ATS record of any NFL competitor.  They enter tonight on a long-term run of 9-35 ATS.  This includes an amazingly poor record of 1-11 ATS in their first road game.  KC HC Reid has long been known as a disinterested, post-season coach.  This has carried over to his 2-year tenure in KC with a 2-6 ATS preseason log.  In addition, fitting hand in glove with the Chiefs’ mark as visitor is the fact that Reid’s teams are 1-7 SU ATS on the road in his first exhibition outing.  Knowing this history, there figures to be little work by starting QB Smith.  Expect more snaps to be taken by back-up QB Chase Daniel with Murray and Bray finishing off the evening.  

For Arizona, HC Arians has done a rather phenomenal job in 2 years of work in the desert.  This includes an 11-6 SU ATS 2015 season in which he guided the Cardinals to the playoffs with a 3rd string QB and despite being outgained by an average of 64 YPG.  As such, the Cardinals may be one of the more overrated teams at the beginning of the 2015 regular season.  Such does not figure to be the case tonight, as Arians has made a point of dominating his preseason opponents in Week 1 of the previous 2 seasons.  In 2013, the Cards whipped the Packers in Green Bay (17-0).  While in 2014, Arizona handled Houston on this field (32-0).  Though veteran QB Carson Palmer does not figure to get much work in this one, backup Drew Stanton proved to be more than an able replacement in his time as the starter last season. 

Let history be thy guide for this NFL pick!  Despite the fact that Chiefs limped home at 2-4 SU ATS to miss the playoffs last year, look for Reid to stay true to his opening week form.  Why not the same for Arians, who has showed his own propensity for fast starts?

NFL Picks: Cardinals -2.5 -125 at YouWager

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