Game by Game Analysis of Chiefs NFL Total Season Wins

Nikki Adams

Sunday, August 3, 2014 6:46 AM GMT

Kansas City Chiefs gave the Denver Broncos a run for their money in the AFC West division last season, only to fall shy down the stretch. Curiously, bookies expect a reversal of fortunes with the line chalked at 8.5 and the under favoured. Will the Chiefs really fall so much? 

Chiefs Expected to Fall
Kansas City Chiefs opened the 2013 season on an incredible eye-popping, nine-game winning streak. Given their abysmal 2012 season, highlighted by a woeful 2-14 record, the Chiefs were a revelation, so utterly and completely turning around their fortunes in the space of a season. Unfortunately, they weren’t able to maintain the momentum after a week 10 bye. Denver Broncos delivered the first defeat on the back of a 27-17 win in Denver in week 11, after which the wheels seem to come undone.

That dose of reality saw the Chiefs finish 2-5 in the last seven games, which put them under .500 in the second half of their season.  It’s one of several reasons why their stock value diminishes on the 2014 season. The other factors include losses in free agency with few gains in return and a tough NFL schedule (three of the four top Super Bowl contenders are slated before a week 6 bye) that leaves very little(if at all) room for error. The upshot: it’s doubtful the Chiefs would come close to matching their 11-5 record on 2013. But does that mean they will fall below the 8.5 mark bookies chalk across sportsbooks? Let’s find out, shall we.

 

Game-by-Game Predictions

Week 1 vs. Tennessee
Given the tough schedule to start the NFL 2014-2015 season Alex Smith and his Chiefs have been dealt, this is exactly the sort of game they must win. They beat the Titans 26-17 on the road last season. Home advantage this time around and a suspect Titans all around should deliver another win.
NFL Pick: Win

 

Week 2 @ Denver
Few NFL bettors would back the Chiefs to take the win in Denver against Peyton Manning and Company. Suffice it to say, this is most likely going to be the first loss on the season for the Chiefs.
NFL Pick: Loss

 

Week 3 @ Miami
Given the whole Incognito scandal and the distractions the Dolphins had to deal with last season all the way through to the offseason, this is another game the Chiefs must win. Chiefs’ defense can harass a beatable Ryan Tannehill to no end. The Chiefs were a solid 6-2 on the road in 2013.
NFL Pick: Win

 

Week 4 vs. New England
The Patriots will be tough to beat even with home advantage for the Chiefs. It’s not entirely impossible. The Patriots were beatable on the road last season (4-4 away). In order to accomplish the feat, Alex Smith and the Chiefs defense would have to do a lot of damage when the opportunity arises. Otherwise, it’s a straight up Patriots win. Forced to make a call now, we’ll take a chance on the Chiefs pulling off the win, but we know very well this could go the other way.
NFL Pick: Win

 

Week 5 @ San Francisco
Last season, the Niners went 6-2 at home and 6-2 on the road. There are several factors that could swing this the way of the Chiefs – Alex Smith’s return to San Francisco and the Niners’ turbulent offseason that could prove a distraction. It’s hard to say at this point in time which factor will be deciding. Thus, for the time being, were leaning towards tangible facts: Niners are tough to beat at home.
NFL Pick: Loss

 

Week 6 Bye

 

Week 7 @ San Diego
The Chiefs couldn’t beat the Chargers last season, falling twice. They lost 41-38 in Kansas and 27-24 in overtime in San Diego. This hasn’t been a good matchup for the Chiefs.
NFL Pick: Loss

 

Week 8 vs. St. Louis
This should be an interesting in-state clash. Defensively, they match up well, suggesting this is going to be a slugfest. If there were an advantage, it would be Alex Smith. He’s a stable, no-nonsense sort that should hold up well against an intimidating Rams defense.
NFL Pick: Win

 

Week 9 vs. New York Jets
This is another one of those games the Chiefs will look upon as a must win in order to have a shot at the post-season. The Jets have made some changes, acquired some attractive offensive pieces that could make them dangerous. Chiefs have the edge on defense however and with home advantage going for them, they should win.
NFL Pick: Win

 

Week 10 @ Buffalo
The Bills and Chiefs are set to collide for a seventh time in as many seasons. Surprisingly, the Chiefs have only won twice, including last season’s 23-13 win in Buffalo. The Chiefs are the better team overall and should win this game. Trends however say otherwise, so it’s a tossup. For our money, we’ll give it to the Chiefs.
NFL Pick: Win

 

Week 11 vs. Seattle
The Super Bowl champions are going to be tough to beat, but if any team is going to do it, it’s going to be when the Hawks are on the road. Still, it’s easier said than done. The Chiefs would have to have an incredible day to stop the Russell Wilson juggernaut.
NFL Pick: Loss

 

Week 12 @ Oakland
This is another one of those gimmick games the Chiefs must win if they are to be playoff contenders this season. The Raiders are rebuilding and they’ve acquired Matt Schaub (coming off an abysmal season with the Texans in which he lost the plot) and a bunch of veterans that are past their sell-by-date.
NFL Pick: Win

 

Week 13 vs. Denver
The Chiefs came close to beating the Broncos at home last season, only to lose 35-28. If the Chiefs are going to beat the Broncos, at home is the best place to do it. Still, it’s hard to bet against the Broncos’ high-octane offense, isn’t it?
NFL Pick: Loss

 

Week 14 @ Arizona
The Cardinals enjoyed a solid 10-6 season to finish third in a tough NFC West division and narrowly miss the playoffs. Defensively, the Cardinals are solid, which makes this a tough road game for Kansas City. The Chiefs are good on defense as well, so they won’t be pushovers. Nevertheless, they’ll be made to work hard for the win here if the Cardinals are nearly as good as they were last season.
NFL Pick: Loss

 

Week 15 vs. Oakland
This is another must-win game for the Chiefs if they hope to defy the odds and make a playoff run this season. Last season, the Chiefs beat the Raiders 24-7.
NFL Pick: Win

 

Week 16 @ Pittsburgh
The Steelers loom large on the road. Significant offseason improvements have many NFL bettors expecting great things from Big Ben and Company. It’s a tough one for the Chiefs to take on the road, indeed.
NFL Pick: Loss

 

Week 17 vs. San Diego
This is going to come down to revenge. The Chiefs haven’t played the Chargers well in recent memory but something has to give. They were swept last season with two narrow losses. Expect them to win their home stance this season.
NFL Pick: Win

 

NFL Betting Verdict
By our game-by-game predictions, the Chiefs are on course for a 9-7 finish this season, which would put them just Over 8.5 at +110. Of course, several games on their tough schedule could swing either way, so Chiefs could easily fall below our projected 9-win mark. Maybe bookies are right after all: the Chiefs are going to fall below the 8.5 mark, potentially giving the postseason a skip. Which way will you go with your NFL picks for the Chiefs’ regular season wins?