Game-by-Game SU NFL Picks For Week 4

Dallas Cowboys team gathered around

Nikki Adams

Tuesday, September 27, 2016 10:47 PM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 27, 2016 10:47 PM UTC

Wondering which teams are going to win in week 4? Lucky enough that is the subject of this weekly space. So read on, and find out where we line up our SU NFL week 4 picks for each and every game.

Week 3 Betting Picks Recap
Predicting winners and losers each and every week is no mean trick. It was a modest week 3 for our straight up NFL picks, finishing with a so-so-ish 7-9-0 mark. To be fair, it was a tough and unpredictable week to handicap and, in some cases, unexpected with six road underdogs coming through against the NFL betting odds.

In any event, our record for the season remains healthy across the board.


Nikki Adams Week 3 NFL Picks SU, ATS, and Totals:
Week 3 SU: 7-9-0 (Overall Season: 32-16-0)
Week 3 ATS: 8-8-0 (Overall Season: 32-16-0)
Week 3 Total:  6-10-0 (Overall Season 22-25-1)

Important to note: Bye Week gets underway for a couple of teams – Philadelphia Eagles and Green Bay Packers – meaning, week 4 serves up just 15 matchups to spot on your NFL week 4 picks. Still quite the chunk of change to consider for your NFL betting thrills. Also, we have our first London game to handicap, featuring the Jaguars and Colts. Should be a doozy.

So let’s get started on our week 4 NFL picks and recover some of the ground we lost in a topsy-turvy week 3.


Thursday, September 29, 2016

Dolphins vs. Bengals
Dolphins avoided the dreaded 0-3 SU start to the season that would have practically written them out of the playoff frame according to NFL trends: no team that started 0-3 made the playoffs in the current format. Great as it is to get the W, Dolphins needed freaking overtime. Overtime to defeat, arguably, the worst team in the NFL, Cleveland Browns. That is hardly a ringing endorsement. There isn’t much to take away from last week’s win. Rather there is something to be had in the previous defeats to the Seahawks (week 1) and Patriots (week 2): they can’t win a meaningful game against a respectable opponent. When are they going to win a big game is what their fans want to know.

Can the Dolphins defy the odds in Thursday Night Football? The Bengals are coming off a disappointing 29-17 loss to the Denver Broncos. Losing to rookie Trevor Siemian probably didn’t go down well with Dandy Andy and on the heels of the loss, his side slips to 1-2 SU on the season. It was Cincy’s second straight loss in as many weeks (l. to divisional rivals Pittsburgh Steelers).

There are those that would argue the Bengals are very lucky to be 1-2 and not 0-3 SU going into week 4 NFL betting; so narrow and fortuitous was their week 1 win over the Jets. Pointing this out isn’t being churlish, rather it highlights just how tough of a schedule the Bengals were dealt. There’s also the element of adjustment with a new offensive coordinator and scheme that we mustn’t make light of. Of course, 1-2 is better than 0-3 SU and the Bengals will take it, but it’s the worst start they’ve had in five years, underscored by offensive struggles. All this makes the Bengals appear a bit overcooked on the NFL odds board as the -300 favourites in money line markets to win. But push comes to shove, we’re shading the Bengals over the Dolphins here. A win over the Browns is nothing to get excited about and definitely we’re not buying into the notion the Dolphins will make it two in a row.


Free NFL Picks: Bengals -300 
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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Sunday, October 2, 2016

Colts vs. Jaguars
Colts and Jaguars collide at Wembley Stadium in a game that is a must-win for the latter. Jacksonville are 0-3 SU on the season and in dire straits according to NFL betting trends that reveal no team with a 0-3 SU start has made the playoffs in the current format of the game. If there is one thing the Jaguars have going for them that could put paid on that NFL betting trend it’s the instability within the AFC South. As it is, it’s one of the weakest division with a lot of uncertainty. Texans are in the lead but coming off an abysmal showing in New England. Colts and Titans are 1-2 SU, but neither side is attracting many buyers in the market in the broad context of the season. All is not lost, maybe.

The Colts take on the Jaguars in London, where Jacksonville has drummed up a decent fan base thanks to their regular trips to the UK in recent seasons. Granted the Colts were winners last week but it marked their first win of the season and it left much to be desired. To put it bluntly, they were lucky to win (pun intended). Chargers fritted away some opportunities and key points that would have swayed the game in their favour. It will serve the Jaguars to keep that in mind. As well, aside from the awful defeat to the Chargers in San Diego the Jaguars held the Packers and Ravens close in week 1 and 3. If they can get it together and convert on some key opportunities they can really snap the negative trend.

Free NFL Picks: Jaguars +120 
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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Titans vs. Texans
Many NFL bettors were left agog by Houston’s pointless showing in New England. Granted Bill Belichick and the Patriots are one of the best home teams in the NFL, but it was expected to be a close game seeing as the hosts were down to a third-string quarterback Jacoby Brissett and a wide receiver Julian Edleman as a backup. Heck, there were those bettors that pounded the Houston Texans on the road to win SU and cover on the road. Tale told the Patriots dismissed the AFC South champions in a 27-0 triumph. Need we say more? Best to move on and just chalk that one as a bad day in the office.

Although the Texans slip to 2-1 SU on the season, they have the advantage of a very beatable opponent to unleash their frustrations on in week 4 NFL betting and return to the win column. Not surprisingly, the Texans have the market firmly cornered in their camp to win SU. Colour the world shocked if the Titans pull out the W here.

Free NFL Picks: Texans -290 
Best Line Offered: at Bet365

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Browns vs. Redskins 
The Cleveland Browns twice came close to winning a football game, only to frit away the opportunity. So close, yet so far away. Now they are 0-3 SU on the season and proving all the negativity that surrounded them in preseason NFL betting markets to be true. Washington Redskins finally got into the win column. Kirk Cousins has to like that! What he’s not going to like is the following: key interceptions by Eli Manning practically served up the win for the Redskins. Put this way, Eli Manning could easily have been mistaken for a Reskins quarterback on the day.

Everybody and their grandmother is betting the Redskins up to defeat the Cleveland Browns, which is understandable. Are we really sold on the Redskins now? They are priced at a whopping -404 NFL odds with low-juice leaders 5Dimes to win straight up. Dunno about you but not putting that kind of money down on the Redskins. This is an anti-price NFL pick, give us the underdog.


Free NFL Picks: Browns +315 
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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Seahawks vs. Jets
NFL betting experts are split down the middle between the Seahawks and Jets mainly because of concerns in both camps on the offensive side of the ball. On one hand, Russell Wilson’s questionable fitness is a real concern. On the other, the Jets were awful in defeat in Kansas City and take a 1-2 SU mark into week 4 NFL betting, which includes a 0-1 SU mark at home following a week 1 loss to the Bengals. And the Jets aren’t without injury concerns either – Eric Decker (shoulder) and Brandon Marshall might not feature on Sunday. Making matters more complicated is the tight NFL betting line where the Seahawks are nominal road faves and the Jets notional home underdogs. To be fair, this is a right tossup on our NFL picks. Push comes to shove, we’re taking the home dogs because the Seahawks are too banged up and last week might have just been a one-off in one of the loudest stadiums (Arrowhead) in the league.

Free NFL Pick: Jets +125
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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Bills vs. Patriots
Rex Ryan was all fired up about his side’s big win over the Cardinals in week 3 NFL betting, snapping a negative trend on the start of the season and, in turn, ensuring the Bills avoid the dreaded 0-3 SU start which might have cost his job. In any event, the Bills are 1-2 SU and go into Foxboro brimming with optimism. Does one win make a winning team all of a sudden? The Bills were really awful in the first couple of weeks and couldn’t find any offensive rhythm. Perhaps, they capitalised on an overly-hyped up Cardinals side – let’s face it, Carson Palmer put in one of his worst accounts (four interceptions and a passer rating barely worth mentioning). Meanwhile, the Patriots have been going about their business unassumingly. All and sundry wrote them off when Tom Brady’s suspension was reinstated. Lo and behold, they are a win away from putting paid on that notion.

Free NFL Pick: Patriots -290
Best Line Offered: at JustBet

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Panthers vs. Falcons
Carolina Panthers are in a spot of trouble it would seem after losing to the Vikings 22-10 in week 3 NFL betting. Most concerning is Cam Newton’s performance thus far – five TDs, five INT and 12 sacks. Yikes. Nothing like Super Cam last season. Promptly, Panthers stock value plummets in NFL betting markets across the board, not to mention they fall significantly in NFL power rankings.

The Falcons, meanwhile, are coming off back-to-back wins that featured their high-octane offense at full tilt. To be fair, both those came against meek defenses – Raiders and Saints boast the worst defensive units according to the stats – and that has many NFL pundits and experts sceptical about the Birds. Are they really as good as their offensive stats suggest they are or are they simply as good as their opponents are bad?

Valid though those questions may be, does it warrant the NFL market outlook currently trading? The Falcons have the momentum but don’t seem to be receiving the respect they deserve. They are installed as the home underdogs anywhere from +150 NFL odds or higher while the Panthers are the road faves at -175 NFL odds. From what we’ve seen through three games this isn’t the Panthers side of last season. Tread carefully with this NFL pick.

Free NFL Picks: Falcons +155 
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes, now offering 50% Free Play Bonus

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Raiders vs. Ravens
A lot is being made about the close games the Ravens are winning, but the important thing to John Harbaugh is that his side is 3-0 SU and much the better for it. The Raiders, meanwhile, are 2-1 SU going into week 4 NFL betting with their triumphs coming against a defensively porous Saints and Titans team that is far from a viable contender. Not to take anything away from the Raiders but they have been flying by the seat of their pants. Wins over Saints and Titans on the road are good enough but the Ravens and their stout defense at home presents a different challenge. Can’t see past a home win, to be honest.

Free NFL Picks: Ravens -171 
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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Lions vs. Bears
It’s official, the Bears are one of the worst teams in the NFL. [Cue: shock and surprise]. The Lions slipped to a second straight defeat in week 3, losing a shootout with the Packers at Lambeau. Still, on the strength of the stats the Lions are the better team. They’re on the road but that may very well be a moot point. Soldier Field hasn’t seen a home win in forever and those that were recorded were too far and in between.

Free NFL Picks: Lions -138 
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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Broncos vs. Buccaneers
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers regress to a 1-2 SU mark following their second straight defeat in as many weeks. So much for the promise of their opening win over the Atlanta Falcons. They were decimated by the Cardinals on the road and, most recently, overpowered by a Rams side that got off to the worst start of the entire league in week 1 but has since recovered to win back-to-back games. Things aren’t looking promising for the Bucs in week 4, if the NFL odds were any indication. Super Bowl defending champions Denver Broncos look great so far. So much for all the worry surrounding the unheralded Trevor Siemian. Peyton Manning’s understudy has taken down Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, and Andy Dalton in three successive weeks. The Broncos should fancy their chances against a Bucs side that seems to be in disarray and a spot of trouble.

Free NFL Picks: Broncos -155
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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Rams vs. Cardinals
The Rams finally record their first touchdown of the season and add a few more. Wow, they have an offense after all. The Cardinals fell flat on their faces in Buffalo and Carson Palmer put in one of his worst performances of the season. Who are these teams? Do they have an identity? At this point, they’re confusing the heck out of NFL bettors putting in a different performance from week to week. Will the real Rams stand up? Will the real Cardinals stand up? It’s a tossup. When in doubt, go with the home team? Rams are playing back-to-back road games and, to be fair, we’re not buying the shootout win in Tampa. That said, Cards are overcooked on the NFL odds board so don’t go betting the farm on them.

Free NFL Picks: Cardinals -370 
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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Saints vs. Chargers
The Saints slip to the dreaded 0-3 SU and one wonders how long before Sean Payton is shown the door? The Chargers enjoyed another headscratcher in week 3 and lost to the Colts, a game that was there for the taking. As a result, they are 1-2 SU thanks to a win over the Jaguars in week 2. The reality is neither side is convincing in any way. Two great quarterbacks that can put up the points, two defenses that part like the red sea. How do you predict a winner?

Free NFL Picks: Chargers -190
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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Cowboys vs. 49ers
Dak Prescott, and the Cowboys are riding a two-game winning streak into week 4 NFL betting and many NFL bettors are jumping on their bandwagon. Some of those were riding the Niners’ train after a week 1 shutout over the Rams. Since that comprehensive display, the Niners have allowed 83 points against them in two games! Talk about the difference a couple of weeks makes. Indeed, even the odds makers are writing off Chip Kelly and the Niners at home to the Cowboys. There’s something to be said for Chip Kelly’s knowledge of the Stars from his days with the Eagles in the NFC East. That might give him the edge in game-planning. However, as mentioned before, we’re not buying what Blaine Gabbert is selling (did you see the handoff to nobody last week that is taking over twitter feeds across the nation? Hilarious).

Free NFL Picks: Cowboys -139
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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Chiefs vs. Steelers
The Chiefs needed to do very little to defeat the Jets in week 3. Fitzpatrick and his six interceptions practically did the trick. The Steelers couldn’t get anything going against the Eagles, succumbing to a shocking 34-3 loss. Two contrasting accounts that cast a bit of confusion on this matchup. It’s important to not make too much of what happened the previous week. Scoring three points in Philadelphia probably doesn’t sit well with the Steelers and that doesn’t bode well for the visiting Chiefs for Sunday’s primetime football betting extravaganza at Heinz Field.

Don’t think a mad Big Ben is something to look forward to, not least the return of LeVeon Bell. Unless Big Ben does a good impression of Fitzpatrick and throws six interceptions it’s hard to see the Chiefs winning here. They’ve been a mixed bag in three weeks – a come-from-behind win over the Chargers in OT, an awful loss to Texans in week 2 and a contentious win over the Jets in week 3. Hmmm…win this game and we might feel differently. Until then we’re going with the Steelers to bounce back.

Free NFL Picks: Steelers -235 
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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Monday, October 3, 2016

Giants vs. Vikings
Everybody is gushing about the Vikings and, mainly, Mike Zimmer who is the early favourite for coach of the year amongst many NFL bettors. Given the trials and tribulations dealt to Minnesota, the fact that they are 3-0 SU going into week 4 is nothing short of remarkable. How can you bet against a team that simply has a winning mentality? It’s as if they don’t know how to lose. You know who does…drumroll…Giants. Eli Manning and the G-men are experts in that field and might fancy giving crash courses on how to lose games. The loss to the Redskins last week is case-and-point.

Ok. Maybe that is too harsh. It was just a bad day for Eli Manning and the G-men. Still, they have a long way to go yet. Perhaps, the Vikings will come crashing back down to earth, eventually. It’s hard to see it happening against the Giants if they continue to be erratic and inconsistent.

Free NFL Picks: Vikings -203 
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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