Game By Game O/U Predictions & Free NFL Picks For Week 5

Houston Texans players gathered around

Wednesday, October 5, 2016 2:30 PM GMT

In this column, we proffer a complete rundown of all week 5 matchups and serve up OVER and UNDER NFL picks for each and every game. Find out where we’re banking on the totals this week.

Nikki Adams Game-by-Game Picks Records SU, ATS and Totals

Week 4 SU: 8-7-0            (Overall Season Record: 40-23-0)
Week 4 ATS: 11-4-0        (Overall Season Record: 43:20-0)
Week 4 Totals: 7-8-0      (Overall Season Record 29-33-1)

 

Thursday, October 6, 2016

Cardinals vs. Niners

Arizona’s offensive contribution over four games perplexes many of its fans and neutrals alike. They’re a shadow of their 2015-self, wholly off colour and off form. If anything, they seem to be picking up from where they left off in the NFC Championship game – an awful deposit in an otherwise successful campaign. One wonders if they’re suffering some sort of post-playoff hangover. Worse news comes in the form of Carson Palmer’s concussion which may or may not rule him out for Thursday Night Football.

San Francisco, as expected by yours truly, regressed after week 1. The MNF win over the Los Angeles Rams seems so long ago now. In hindsight, a one-off not unlike the MNF win over the Vikings to kick off 2015. As it is, the Niners are riding a three-game losing streak, compounded by conceding 107 points over those 12 quarters (that’s 35.6 points per game. Ouch).

In spite of those heady numbers the total for this game hovers around 43 to 43.5 points at most sports betting shops. In part because of the Cardinals quarterback quandary. But also the inconsistency of the Niners offense too. Given all the question marks and the ugly football both these teams have treated their fans over the course of four weeks of NFL betting, it’s hard to imagine an offensive showdown taking place at Levi Stadium this Thursday.

Free NFL Picks: UNDER 43.5 -110 
Best Line Offered: at SportsInteraction

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Sunday, October 9, 2016

Patriots vs. Browns

Last week was an anomaly best forgotten. It’s a brand new week and Tom Brady is back, ready to flex his passing muscle at the expense of a hapless Cleveland Browns defense which is leaking an average of almost 30 points per game.  Patriots are a different beast entirely when Brady is under centre and if he’s anywhere nearly as mad and frustrated as some reports indicate this could be a beat down to remember.

Free NFL Picks: OVER 46.5 -110 
Best Line Offered: at William Hill

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Eagles vs. Lions

Philadelphia Eagles are off to a bright start with rookie quarterback Carson Wentz beyond anyone’s wildest imaginations. Most recently, they decimated Big Ben and the Steelers in a 34-3 win in week 3 NFL betting, a gauntlet throwing win that put paid on any notions the rookie might have caught a break with an easy NFL schedule in the first couple of weeks. The Eagles are 1-2-0 in OVER/UNDER betting, a feat underscored by an underrated defense that has allowed just 27 points in three games. The Lions haven’t looked good in the last few weeks and Matthew Stafford, who was one of the hottest hands in week 1, appears to have lost his mojo. If the Eagles defense continues to dictate the tone, the Lions O-Line may not even get off the ground.

Free NFL Picks: UNDER 46 -110 
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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Bears vs. Colts

Each and every single game the Colts have participated in this season has involved a shootout that cracked the 49.5-point total mark. Not surprisingly, NFL bettors are pounding the OVER 47.5-point total trading on this game for their NFL picks. The Bears are coming off their first win but it remains to be seen whether Brian Hoyer gets his second start of the season or John Fox goes back to Jay Cutler (injured thumb). That decision will have an impact on how this game unfolds. Assuming it is Hoyer, we do like the OVER for our NFL week 5 picks.

Free NFL Picks: OVER 47.5 (-105) 
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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Titans vs. Dolphins

Neither offense strikes a convincing pose, which is a bit of a worry. Second-year quarterback Marcus Mariota is struggling to put up the points and Ryan Tannehill is struggling to learn the new schemes under new coaching staff, amongst other issues. It’s therefore unlikely to expect a shootout between these two gunslingers. On the other side of the ball, the defenses are quite stout.

Free NFL Picks: UNDER 43.5 (-105) 
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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Redskins vs. Ravens

The Redskins are coming off back-to-back wins in which they averaged 25 points per game. In all four games this season, the Redskins cracked the OVER in total betting, largely thanks to a weak defense that has conceded 112 points through four games. The Ravens are the complete opposite a stuttering offense supported by a strong defense. The unit that dictates this game will determine whether this cracks the 44.5-point total currently on offer. One does feel that Joe Flacco and the O-line will get it together soon though.

Free NFL Picks: OVER 44.5 -110 
Best Line Offered: Bookmaker

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Texans vs. Vikings

The Vikings were consistent UNDER performers in 2015. That hasn’t changed with new quarterback Sam Bradford under centre because the defense is still so strong and takes most of the pressure off the O-line. The Texans, meanwhile, are playing solid on both sides of the ball as well but in the balance of this matchup the Vikings do just about everything that much better. By and large, this is expected to be a battle of attrition between the defenses which has us leaning towards the UNDER on our NFL picks instinctively. That said, with the total hovering round 40 points the OVER might be the smarter NFL pick.

 

Free NFL Picks: OVER 40 -110 
Best Line Offered: at Bet365

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Jets vs. Steelers

The Jets offense is firing blanks and fingers are pointing to Ryan Fitzpatrick and the O-line. That said the defense isn’t doing its bit to take the pressure off the veteran quarterback either. The Steelers, meanwhile, just lit up the Chiefs at Heinz Field and it marked their second account in which they scored 38 or more points. This is a tough one to predict because it could go either way. Consider the Steelers are firing at all cylinders it’s quite likely this game will go OVER.

 

Free NFL Picks: OVER 47 -110 
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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Falcons vs. Broncos

Matt Ryan and the Falcons are riding a three-game winning streak in which they littered the offensive stat sheets. Many NFL bettors are wary to buy what Ryan and his O-line are selling until their measure is taken by a stellar defense. The Broncos represent such a challenge so it’s a matter of days before we find out if they really are legit. The NFL betting line for this game though does salute Matt Ryan and his O-line. It’s the highest total Denver has enjoyed on the NFL odds board in any given week this season, same as the closing total of 47-points in the clash between the Colts and Broncos. That was cracked, well and truly behind a 34-20 win.

Free NFL Picks: OVER 46 -110 
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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Bengals vs. Cowboys

The Cincinnati Bengals offense has gone MIA. Well, to Cleveland with Hue Jackson taking on the coaching job there. So it really isn’t surprising Andy Dalton and the O-line are struggling. Some of those struggles must also be attributed to a tough schedule with some powerhouse teams in their way, including the Steelers and Broncos (to name a few). The Dallas defense might not give Dalton as many headaches, but he’ll be pressed to keep up with Dak Prescott, who is setting rookie records for going without an interception in four games all while passing for oodles of yards.

Free NFL Picks: OVER 45 -110 
Best Line Offered: at William Hill

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Bills vs. Rams

Since the shutout defeat to the Niners in week 1 the Rams have turned things around largely down to a defensive effort. They defeated the Seahawks 9-3 and upset the Cardinals 17-13. The lone shootout came in Tampa Bay, which in hindsight reveals how awful the Bucs defense really is rather than how great the Rams offense is. In any event, if the Rams defense dictates proceedings it’s likely to be a low-scoring affair.

Free NFL Picks: Under 40 -110 Bodog

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Chargers vs. Raiders

This has shootout written all over it. Combine the points scored by both teams and you get 229 points through four games for an average of almost 57 points per game. Take it a step further and the defensive side of the ball combines for 214 points conceded for 53.5 points conceded per game on average. By virtue of those numbers, colour the world shocked if this game doesn’t crack the 50-point total on the NFL odds board.

Free NFL Picks: OVER 49 -110 
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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Giants vs. Packers
The Giants offense finally lit up in week 3 behind a 34-37 win over the Lions. Whether they come out of the bye week continuing on the rich vein of form remains to be seen. Bookmakers seem to think there is a good chance they will. The NFL line opened at 48 points with most sports betting outlets, while some hang the game on 47.5 points. The Giants have plenty offensive weapons but Eli Manning isn’t quite connecting with his targets consistently. As a result, the d-line faces the brunt of the pressure which can only be taxing.  Most recently, the Giants lost to the Vikings 24-7 in MNF. This one is a tossup. If Aaron Rogers and Eli Manning live up to their gun-slinging billing, this could be a shootout and the OVER would be the smart NFL pick. If Eli Manning has another atrocious day in the office though, it could be a right stinker. Here’s hoping Sunday Night Football isn’t a waste of time.

Free NFL Picks: OVER 47.5 -110 
Best Line Offered: at BetCris

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Bucs vs. Panthers

The Totals opened around 45.5-points for this game but the NFL line was bet up to 46 points with most sports betting outlets thanks to the OVER emerging as the consensus week 6 NFL pick with almost 58% of the market. The weather doesn’t appear to be an issue as previously thought and that might have a hand in this NFL betting outlook. There’s also the fact that the Panthers are 3-1-0 in Over/Under betting and the Bucs are 2-2 in Over/Under betting through four weeks of the NFL betting season. Most alarming, the Bucs  have conceded 128 points through four games which is an average of 32 points per game and three of their last four games cracked the 37-point total.

Free NFL Picks: Over 45.5 -110
Best Line Offered: at Bet365

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