Game-By-Game Breakdown For Betting Packers Season Win Totals

Wednesday, July 6, 2016 2:28 PM GMT

Will the Green Bay Packers crack the high 10.5 season win total projected on the NFL odds board? We run down the schedule and serve up NFL picks for each and every game in 2016.

Green Bay Packers Look Back
So the Green Bay Packers lost the NFC North title to the Minnesota Vikings. Big Whoop! They still went further in the playoffs than the NFC champs did, making it a moot point in the end. Even very nearly made it to the NFC Championship game, but for an overtime loss in the NFC Championship game to the Arizona Cardinals. The second straight season in which Aaron Rodgers never got to even tough the ball, let alone throw it in OT. Somebody please change the rule, for god’s sake. It’s ridiculous that both teams don’t get a crack at it in OT just because one side scores a touchdown.

In any event, dissecting the NFL rule book isn’t the purpose of this column. We’re here to weigh in on the Packers and their upcoming season, which bookmakers are hanging on a 10.5 season win total with the OVER consummately favoured at -160 NFL odds or thereabouts depending on your choice sportsbook. By contrast, the UNDER 10.5 is backed out to +130 NFL odds. If one price tag were to speak volumes, it would be the latter, which in no uncertain terms implies how unlikely such an outcome is. For several reasons a) Aaron Rodgers is to have his favourite target back this season – Jordy Nelson (barring any sudden injuries, of course, in preseason and onwards), and b) the Green Bay Packers – very advantageously – have the easiest NFL schedule based on last season’s win-loss results.

Put it this way: in 2015, the Packers had the 14th toughest schedule, lost Jordy Nelson amongst several others to injuries and, yet, Aaron Rodgers lifted the Packers to a 10-6 record (one win less than the Vikings) and took them all the way to the NFC divisional round of the playoffs.

Ahead of the 2015 season, bookies rolled out an 11 season win total, which the Packers didn’t crack, obviously. But that’s not the point. The point is they had the 14th toughest schedule and Vegas odds makers estimated a full-strength Packers would still negotiate a season above 11 wins. Now that they have the easiest schedule of the entire season the projected win total is 10.5. Half a win less than last season? Heck, it should be a walk in the park for the Packers to crack this total and then some. They are +475 at Bookmaker to win the NFC Conference.

On that positive note, here’s our breakdown of the Packers’ schedule, complete with game-by-game NFL picks. As per usual, these are but predictions, suppositions based on previous NFL betting trends and established perceptions. Short of a crystal ball we can’t say for a fact each and every game will fall in line with our tips. Always exercise due diligence and caution when making your bets.

So here we go…

Green Bay Packers 2016 Game-by-Game Win-Loss Predictions at a glance

 

 

WEEK

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

HOME/AWAY

A

A

H

BYE

H

H

H

A

H

A

A

A

H

H

A

H

A

TEAM

JAG

MIN

DET

BYE

NYG

DAL

CHI

ATL

IND

TEN

WAS

PHI

HOU

SEA

CHI

MIN

DET

WIN/LOSS

W

W

W

BYE

W

W

W

W

W

W

W

W

W

L

W

W

W

 

Week 1 vs. Jacksonville (away), Sunday, September 11
As far as openers in week 1 of NFL betting go, this matchup doesn’t leap off the page as the popcorn game to spot. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers shouldn’t mind, though. It’ll be a great way to ease into the season against a Jaguars side that although can’t be underestimated the Packers should still beat.

NFL Picks: Win
Record 1-0

 

Week 2 vs. Minnesota (away), Sunday, September 18
Last season, the pair split the series with each side winning on the road. As far as Primetime Sunday Night Football goes, this one is one to circle on your NFL betting calendar. The loss to Minnesota Vikings at Lambeau last season literally ceded the NFC North title to the Vikings. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers will be eager to make a point and win this divisional game, the first of the season and announce their intentions. It won’t be easy and it would be unfair to suggest this is a sure win for the Packers, but, they can pull it off, if only narrowly.

NFL Picks: Win
Record 2-0

 

Week 3 vs. Detroit, Sunday, September 25
Last season, the Detroit Lions stunned the Green Bay Packers at home. It was a win for the ages – also the first win by Matthew Stafford in forever, not to mention few bettors saw it coming given the season the Lions were having – narrow though it was as it ended 18-16 with the Packers running out of time. The chances that the Lions would descend on Lambeau Field and win two in a row in back-to-back seasons is a bit optimistic. Let’s not forget, they don’t have Calvin Johnson while Aaron Rodgers should have Jordy Nelson back and fit as a fiddle.

NFL Picks: Win
Record 3-0

 

Week 4 vs. BYE

 

Week 5 vs. NY Giants, Sunday, October 9
Following a Bye Week, the Packers welcome the NY Giants to Lambeau. For the Giants, it’s the second straight away game and second straight NFC North date following a clash with the Minnesota Vikings. Importantly, a bit of a short week as well after Monday Night Football with the Vikings. McAdoo spent eight years in Green Bay, so there’s not much he doesn’t know about the Packers system. Could be an advantage to the Giants. But it’s Lambeau. Aaron Rodgers and a tough place to win.

NFL Picks: Win
Record 4-0

 

Week 6 vs. Dallas, Sunday, October 16
The Dallas Cowboys are 1-4 SU at Lambeau since 2006, a run of form that includes playoff dates. Winning on the road is tough enough, but on Green Bay’s stomping ground it doesn’t get any tougher. Plus, the Cowboys are coming off an away trip to San Francisco, a home game against Cincy and then a trek to Green Bay. Anything is possible if Tony Romo is healthy of course, but, unless proven otherwise, going against the Packers at home is just not sound NFL betting.

NFL Picks: Win
Record 5-0

 

Week 7 vs. Chicago, Thursday, October 20
The Packers round out a four-game home stretch with Chicago Bears, a side they’ve used as their personal punching bag in recent memory. Ok, so Jay Cutler and the Bears did beat the Packers last Thanksgiving at Lambeau, it was just one of those on-offs. A bad patch for the Packers offence. Chances are the Bears would repeat are slim to none, right? Put this way, it will take a bold NFL bettor to bank on the Bears making it two in a row in as many seasons at Lambeau, even if the Packers are looking at a short week with a Thursday Night football clash.

NFL Picks: Wins
Record 6-0

 

Week 8 vs. Atlanta (away), Sunday, October 30
If the Atlanta Falcons don’t know how scary Aaron Rodgers is indoors, they might want to ask Mathew Stafford and the Detroit Lions. The Hail Mary for the ages that saw the Packers clinch the improbable victory at Ford Field was awe-inspiring. Dann Quinn is entering his second year as coach of the Falcons. Last season was topsy-turvy, to say the least, which makes it hard to predict how they’ll fare this season. Offensively, the Falcons can light up, making this a likely shootout. Falcons could get one over the Packers on their turf, but it wouldn’t surprise us if the Packers did win.

NFL Picks: Win
Record: 7-0

 

Week 9 vs. Indianapolis, Sunday, November 6
Andrew Luck has the new contract, whoop! Good news he’s healthy too, at least for now. But have the Colts done enough to improve on both sides of the ball. Just as the Cowboys without Romo, the Colts without Luck were pedestrian. Hard to say unequivocally at this point in time, two months ahead of the start of the season. We’re not convinced the Colts are viable contenders yet, even if they do come through in their division. Quarterback to quarterback, it’s a matchup of the best in the game. Team-to-team though the Packers do have the edge. Plus, they are at Lambeau, looking ahead to a three-game away stretch that could be tricky.

NFL Picks: Win
Record: 8-0

 

Week 10 vs. Tennessee, (away) Sunday, November 13
Tennessee Titans are still in rebuild mode and lots of uncertainty hangs over the franchise. They finished 3-13 SU last season. A date with the Packers at home is just a tough ask. Expect Aaron Rodgers and the Packers O-line to ride roughshod in Tennessee.

NFL Picks: Win
Record 9-0

 

Week 11 vs. Washington (away), Sunday, November 20
Last season, the Packers met the Washington Redskins in the wildcard round of the playoffs and lost 35-18. The Redskins may be improved but Kirk Cousins is no match for Aaron Rodgers. So long as he plays to his level, he should lift the Packers to another resounding win.

NFL Picks: Win
Record 10-0

 

Week 12 vs. Philadelphia (away), Monday, November 28
Quarterback issues in Philadelphia coupled with new coaching and system are some of the main things that could go against the Eagles. Sam Bradford is no Aaron Rodgers.

NFL Picks: Win
Record 11-0

 

Week 13 vs. Houston, Sunday, December 4
The Houston Texans descend on the Green Bay Packers in week 13 of the NFL season, a clash that could prove interesting with J.J Watt returning to his Wisconsin stomping grounds. Texans have Brock Osweiller, acquiring the promising Denver Broncos understudy in the offseason. There’s a lot of positives in the Texans camp that has many largely optimistic about their prospects. It’s down the stretch and while the Packers are tough to beat at home this game could be a potential wobble for the hosts. Still, it’s hard to go against the Packers at home for our NFL picks.

NFL Picks: Win
Record 12-0

 

Week 14 vs. Seattle, Sunday, December 11
The Packers face off against the Seattle Seahawks at Lambeau, reprising their clash of last season in which they defeated the Hawks 27-17. That was week 2 NFL betting and the Seahawks were mired in an inexplicable slump at the start of the season. Seahawks are typically a side that finishes the season strong, so if there’s a team that could give Aaron Rodgers and Company a run for its money at Lambeau it’s the Seahawks. There’s a real chance the Seahawks could win this game, making it a tossup. You don’t want to bet against Aaron Rodgers on his turf, but it would be grossly misleading to dismiss the Seahawks as well.

NFL Picks: Loss
Record 12-1

 

Week 15 vs Chicago (away), December 18
Chicago Bears went 1-7 SU at home last season. In 2014, they went 2-6 SU at home. The last two seasons have been a struggle at Soldier Field, it’s a wonder that fans aren’t asking for their money back. Still, John Fox is into his second year as the coach of the Bears. By this time of the season, it’s quite possible the Packers have the divisional title in the bag and it won’t matter as much if they suffer a loss. Still, hard to see Packers losing to Jay Cutler.

NFL Picks: Win
Record 13-1

 

Week 16 vs. Minnesota, Saturday, December 24
The Green Bay Packers have a score to settle with the Minnesota Vikings at Lambeau, seeing as Teddy Bridgewater and company took the unlikely 20-13 win in week 17 last year to clinch the title. Effectively ending a four-year title-winning spree by the Packers. Packers will want to get this one right this time.

NFL Picks: Win
Record 14-1

 

Week 17 vs. Detroit (away), Sunday, January 1
The Packers close the season at Ford Field in week 17 NFL betting. Avid NFL bettors will recall the Hail Mary for the ages against Detroit, one of the best and the most extraordinary finishes to a game. Don’t think betting against Aaron Rodgers indoors is a good idea. Do you?

NFL Picks: Win
Record 15-1

 

NFL Betting Season Win Totals Predictions: Granted a 15-1 SU record is rather optimistic and, let’s face it, it’s not often that it happens in a season. Then again, the Carolina Panthers did it last season, all while defying NFL betting expectations in a big way. So, is it really a stretch to give a Super Bowl winning quarterback such as Aaron Rodgers wiggle room to play with in terms of season win total?

Look, few NFL bettors are going to agree with this rather rosy outlook on the season. There are a couple of matchups that are tossups and the Packers could lose. It could be 15-1, 14-2, 13-3 or 12-4 when all is said and done. What’s the difference when the Packers have received the easiest NFL schedule of the field and the projected season win totals are set to 10.5?  So long as the overwhelming perceptions of their opponents rule, we must agree that it’s hard to see the Packers failing to crack this 10.5 season win total.

NFL Picks: Over 10.5 at -160