Game-By-Game Against The Spread Predictions For NFL Week 4

Odell Beckham Jr

Nikki Adams

Tuesday, September 27, 2016 9:56 PM GMT

Tuesday, Sep. 27, 2016 9:56 PM GMT

Looking to bet against the spread every week of the NFL? You’ve come to the right space. In this column we serve up NFL picks for each and every game and – the best bit – it’s for free!

NFL Betting Recap Week 3 versus the spread
It was a good week. Not great. Just good with an 8-8 mark for our NFL picks against the spread. Happily, it has the season’s record improve to 32-16-0 ATS.

Nikki Adams Week 3 NFL Picks SU, ATS and Totals:

Week 3 SU: 7-9-0 (Overall Season: 32-16-0)
Week 3 ATS: 8-8-0 (Overall Season: 32-16-0)
Week 3 Total:  6-10-0 (Overall Season 22-25-1)

Week 4 brings us the first bye weeks for the NFL (Philadelphia Eagles and Green Bay Packers) and the first London game between Indianapolis Colts and Jacksonville Jaguars. In total, 15 games to spot on your NFL picks and here’s how we’re lining up in the context of spread betting markets.

 

Thursday, September 29, 2016

Dolphins vs. Bengals
The Bengals offense hasn’t impressed at all through three games of the 2016 season. It’s the worst start for the Bengals in five years, actually. That does make laying 7 points with the Bengals a bit of a risky NFL pick. On the flipside, it was a tough schedule and there were bound to be growing pains under new offensive management.  If there’s one thing that goes for the Bengals is the Dolphins sketchy performance in three weeks. To put it simply, they aren’t convincing at all. Sure they kept it close to the Seahawks in week 1 to cover as the double-digit road underdogs, but not without a caveat – Russell Wilson suffered a high ankle sprain in that game. The scoreboard showed another relatively close game in New England in week 2. Yet, again, the caveat was identical—Jimmy Garoppolo suffered an ACL sprain. In week 3, rookie Cody Kessler very nearly (should have) beat the Dolphins. In all fairness, the Browns had no business according to the NFL odds to keep it close against a so-called stout Miami defense. Heck, the Dolphins might have been 0-3 SU going into this Thursday Night Football showdown at Paul Brown Stadium had the Browns kicker not botched the field goal attempt in the dying seconds of the game. Granted one could say the same about the Bengals being 0-3 SU too. Anyway, it’s a short week and the Dolphins are on the road while the Bengals play a second straight home game. That’s a slight edge to the hosts.

Free NFL Picks: Bengals -7 (-105) 
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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Sunday, October 2, 2016

Colts vs. Jaguars (In LONDON)
The Colts are 1-2 SU and the Jaguars are 0-3 SU going into week 4 of the NFL season. Nobody is high on either team, to say the least. Colts snapped the negative trend with a win over the Chargers in week 3, but it was a dubious win and luck (figuratively) had a lot to do with it. The Jaguars were mere minutes away from recording their first win on the season but for the stout Ravens who scored a game-ending field goal. London is the home across the pond for the Jaguars, yet the public is betting up the Indianapolis Colts for this game largely down to Andrew Luck and his perceived quality. Seemingly ignoring the fact that the Colts et al have many holes, nowhere more so than in their secondary. Jaguars strike an attractive pose on the NFL odds board and those looking to back the Jaguars will fancy some of the attractive juice currently brandished by 5Dimes, Heritage, Bookmaker and Bet Online, to name a few of SBR’s top-rated sportsbooks in the industry.

Free NFL Picks: Jaguars +2.5 (+100) 
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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Titans vs. Texans
Houston’s offense went MIA last week, prompting a search party at Gillette Stadium but to no avail. Where it disappeared, nobody knows. Not even Bill O’Brien had any feasible answers. Let’s just hope it made the flight back to Houston this week and will deign to make an appearance on Sunday. It’s important not to get carried away by one game. Then there is also the genius of Bill Belichick and his second-to-none game-planning that has to be taken into consideration. Anyway, that was last week and they can’t go back in time and put in a redo. So on to the next week where the Titans are slotted for a visit to NRG Stadium. If the Texans aren’t mad and don’t take out their revenge on the hapless Titans they’re not worth the hype.

Free NFL Picks: Texans -4 (-105)
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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Browns vs. Redskins
How the Redskins are trading as the whopping 9-point home chalk in this game when they were being all but written off a few days prior beggars belief. Only a few days ago, it was all about strife in the locker room and calls for Colt McCoy to replace Kirk Cousins were reaching a crescendo. Two key Eli Manning interceptions and the Redskins win their first game of the season. All of a sudden, everything is alright in the nation’s capital. Markets are fawning over Cousins and his crew? Hmm…something just doesn’t feel right about this market at all. Consider the Browns defied the NFL odds in Miami (covered as the +10 road underdogs in an overtime loss) last week. Really, they should have won but for an unreliable kicker.

Free NFL Picks: Browns +9.5 (-125)
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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Seahawks vs. Jets
The Jets are coming off an abysmal showing in Kansas City in week 3 NFL betting. From Ryan Fitzpatrick and the entire O-line to the D-line the issues were endless and costly. Typically, a date with the Seahawks would be a concern following a confidence-sucking defeat. It still may be as the Seahawks defense is the second best in the league following three rounds. That said, the Jets are at home while the Seahawks travel across the country. As well, the Seahawks O-line has plenty of its own issues, not least Russell Wilson who isn’t 100% fit. Should Wilson not be able to give it turn at MetLife, the game will rest on Trevone Boykin’s shoulders. As it is, Wilson is adamant he’ll play. But there’s no guarantee he’ll finish the game is there? The risk of re-injury against a tough Jets defense is something to consider.

Free NFL Picks: Jets +2.5 (+100) 
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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Bills vs. Patriots
To date, mum’s the word in New England about who the starting quarterback will be – Jimmy Garoppolo or Jacoby Brissett. There’s speculation about both playing in this game and taking turns considering their respective injuries. Finally, Julian Edelman is omnipresent in the wings and could potentially be called upon to start. Wouldn’t be surprising if he did; he’s that kind of ballsy coach and those naysayers be damned. Of course, it being up in the air on that front might make NFL bettors understandably hesitant. If there’s one thing we’ve learned is Bill Belichick is enjoying sticking it to Roger Goodell. Nothing would give Belichick more satisfaction or validation than going 4-0 SU while Brady serves his four-game suspension sunning in Italy with Giselle Bundchen.
 

Free NFL Picks: Pats -3 (-120)
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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Panthers vs. Falcons
It appears as if odds makers are making light of the subpar 1-2 SU record sported by Carolina because the Panthers go into week 4 as the road chalk laying 3 to 3.5 points. That’s either wild optimism or genius move to trap NFL bettors one way or the other on their NFL bets for this game. Of all the teams the Panthers have seen so far, the Falcons defense is expected to give Cam Newton the least trouble. Week 1 saw a Super Bowl winning defense in the Broncos thwart Cam Newton and the Panthers. Week 2 saw a Niners defense that held the Rams pointless decimated by the Panthers into oblivion. Week 3 saw a Vikings defense run riot over Cam Newton and the Panthers. From week to week, the Panthers are an enigma. Nothing of the kind of consistency they displayed last term. That must be taken note of when considering this matchup. Particularly, seeing as the Falcons are riding back-to-back road wins and their offense is firing at all cylinders.

Free NFL Picks: Falcons +3.5 (-115) 
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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Raiders vs. Ravens
The Ravens and Raiders are winning by the skin of their teeth. The Raiders take a 2-1 SU record into week 4, which includes wins over the Saints (0-3) and Titans (1-2). The Ravens are 3-0 SU and boast wins over the Bills (1-2), Browns (0-3) and Jaguars (0-3). Arguably, both have had soft schedules – the opponents that these two sides have beaten sport a combined win loss record of 2-13 SU. That’s telling. We are yet to get a real sense of who the Raiders or the Ravens really are and we’re unlikely to get any answers in this matchup. Suffice it to say, the Ravens at home are tough to beat but, we’re not ready to write off the Raiders offense entirely either.

Free NFL Picks: Raiders +3.5 (-115) 
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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Lions vs. Bears
Detroit Lions are coming off a disappointing defeat to divisional rivals Green Bay Packers. Indeed, they got off to a slow start and looked to be down and out by the end of the first half. However, in the second half they perked up and gave the Packers a run for their money to close the gap on the scoreboard. Offensively, there’s a lot to like about the Lions as they go into their second straight divisional clash against a hapless Chicago Bears, who are yet to record their first W of the season. Back-up Brian Hoyer did his best in week 3 but to no avail. This is a team on the brinks of dissention and Jay Cutler’s apathetic attitude and style of play, which is as riveting and exciting as a sloth climbing a tree, is symptomatic of the team’s frustrations. It remains to be seen whether Cutler gets the start in week 4 – all hinges on his ailing thumb.

Free NFL Picks: Lions -2.5 -113
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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Broncos vs. Buccaneers
The Broncos are riding the momentum of a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS start on the season and the euphoria surrounding the hidden gem that is Trevor Siemian whose poise and calm in the pocket outshines big names such as Cam Newton, Andrew Luck and Andy Dalton. This isn’t a one-off by an unheralded quarterback anymore but the real deal by a kid that is clearly capitalising on a lifetime opportunity. So much for the Bucs and the opening win in Atlanta. They were steamrolled by the Cards and the Rams in successive weeks – two sides that are enjoying mixed fortunes so far, which makes those losses all the more perplexing. Guess they might have been overly hyped up. In any event, Broncos look formidable. One might be worried for Jameis Winston and the Bucs.

Free NFL Picks: Broncos -3 -105 
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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Rams vs. Cardinals
As mentioned above the identity of the Rams and Cardinals, respectively, is a mystery. Rams find their offense in week 3 and score their first few touchdowns of the season. By contrast, Cardinals and their offense go walkabout and Carson Palmer looks pedestrian, to put it mildly. How this matchup will take shape is anybody’s guess. Given what we saw in week 3 we’re loathe to lay that many points with Arizona, even though they are at home.

Free NFL Picks: Rams +9 (-115) 
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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Saints vs. Chargers
The Saints lost a third straight game in week 3 to slip to a 0-3 SU start on the season. MNF’s loss to the Falcons was particularly disappointing seeing as it came on the 10 year anniversary of Hurricane Katrina. Where do the Saints go from here is anybody’s guess, but the chances they’ll reach the playoffs now are slim to none according to NFL betting trends. They have nothing to lose and everything to gain as a result when they descend on the San Diego Chargers on Sunday. The Chargers are wholly off form and off colour as well and can’t seem to find any consistency. It’s a right tossup on our NFL picks.

Free NFL Picks: Saints +5 (-105) 
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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Cowboys vs. Niners
Dallas Cowboys record their second win without Tony Romo, a feat that has prompted many NFL insiders already calling prematurely for the benching of Romo when he does return to the game in favour of rookie Dak Prescott. Talk about an endorsement of the young gun. In any event, the Cowboys hit the road in week 4 to take on a Niners side that did a complete and utter about-face in week 2 from which they are yet to recover. A distant memory is now the 27-0 win over the Rams in week 1 that had all and sundry singing Blaine Gabbert’s praises. (Only the churlish would say, told you so). It’s difficult to tell what to expect from the Niners in week 4 when they’re coming off blowout losses to Panthers and Seahawks (and a gimpy Russell Wilson, no less). Bookmakers are laying the points as a result with the Cowboys. Makes sense,

Free NFL Picks: Cowboys -1 (-105) 
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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Chiefs vs. Steelers
The Chiefs certainly weren’t as good as the score line indicated in week 3. Same goes for the Steelers, who weren’t as bad as the shocking score line indicated in their loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. As it is, books are hanging this game on a 5.5 to 6 spread with the Steelers to the good at home. The Chiefs got away with cheap points in the 24-3 win over the Jets thanks to six interceptions by Ryan Fitzpatrick. Unless Big Ben does a great impression of Fitzpatrick, it’s hard to see the Chiefs taking the victory at Heinz Field. Look for a mad Big Ben to bounce back in Sunday Night Football with LeVeon Bell back at his side

Free NFL Picks: Steelers -4 -105 
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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Monday, October 3, 2016

Giants vs. Vikings
Mike Zimmer and the Vikings are taking a page from Bill Belichick and the Patriots, refusing to lose despite the obstacles and NFL odds stacking against them. That’s a winning mentality to hang one’s hat on if ever there was one. No surprise the Vikings are the considerable -4 home chalk for their date with the NY Giants, who are coming off a gaffe at MetLife. Two costly interceptions that denied the Giants what should have been a home win over the Redskins. The G-men are improved from last year but, after that performance, we can all agree they have a ways to go yet.

Free NFL Picks: Vikings -4 (-105) 
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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