Free Week 6 NFL Picks

Jordan Sharp

Wednesday, October 8, 2014 12:33 PM GMT

The NFL season seems to be flying by, so don’t let any NFL betting odds value fly by you as well. Week 6 brings an increase in games but here are two games that I’ve had my eye on. 

Baltimore Ravens vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Although it was a red flag for this team, I think last week may have been an anomaly for the Ravens. Both the Colts and Ravens were struggling to score at times this past Sunday, but heading on the road into Tampa shouldn’t hurt their scoring too much. The Bucs’ defense is beatable, especially through the air. Joe Flacco should have a bounce back game, as the Bucs give up nearly 300 passing yards per game this season.

It wasn’t just that one game against the Falcons either. Tampa has given up north of 300 passing yards in their last three games. Their rushing defense hasn’t been great either, giving up around 120 yards per game on the ground, and another 45 yards through the air to opposing running backs.

On the other side for the Ravens, their defense may be their best weapon this season, especially against the Bucs. Although the team has improved under Mike Glennon, the Bucs still lack a consistent running game. Without one, it’s going to make it even easier on this solid secondary in Baltimore. The Bucs are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games against a team with a winning record, and they are 0-4 ATS in their last four games as home dogs of +3 ½ to +10. You can either get the line at -3, or even -3 ½, but both looks good to me in this week’s NFL odds.

My Free NFL Pick: Ravens -3 at YouWager

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Carolina Panthers vs. Cincinnati Bengals
After losing their first game last week to a suddenly relevant Patriots team, the Bengals head back home for Week 6 to welcome in Cam Newton and the Panthers. The NFL odds right now favor Cincinnati at a touchdown, however I am more focused on the total for my NFL Picks this week. At 44 ½, or even 45 at Bovada, the under might be one of my favorite and more undervalued plays of the week.

The Bengals’ defense got roughed up last week, however the Panthers’ offense poses little threat to the balanced defense in Cincinnati. On top of that, their offense has been playing much better than I expected under the first year of Hue Jackson as offensive coordinator. Through five games, the Bengals are the 11th best passing offense in the NFL, and while they rank outside of the top 15 in rushing, they should amp that area up in this game. The Panthers are giving up nearly 130 rushing yards per game, and if the Bengals want to win this game, they will have to run the ball.

However if they do that, the likelihood if this game having a high score is not that big. The Panthers; offense can’t run the ball making them very one-dimensional and an easy target for the Bengals secondary. The Bengals might have some trouble passing the ball against the Panthers, and at 45 that makes this total way too high. I am projecting a score close to the 24-17 mark, making the under one of my favorite NFL Picks this week.

My Free NFL Pick: Under 45 

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