Free Week 5 NFL Picks

Jordan Sharp

Thursday, October 2, 2014 3:01 PM GMT

We have reached the quarter mark of the NFL season, and with value being tougher to find every week, you have to be careful selecting NFL Picks. There are several spread plays that look solid this week, but I have found three total NFL Odds that look better. 

Ravens vs. Colts
The Ravens are slight NFL Odds underdogs against the Colts this week, but I am more focused on the total of 48 ½. This will be a big test for the Colts after two weeks of facing sub-par divisional opponents. However while the Ravens’ defense should give up much more of a fight against the Colts, the Ravens offense is being overlooked in this game. I could easily see this game turning into a shootout between Joe Flacco and Andrew Luck.

The Colts have cashed the over at 7-2 in their last nine games following a straight up win, and they have cashed the over in all of their previous five games against AFC opponents. The Ravens have cashed the over in four of their last five road games, and the over has cashed in five of the Ravens; last seven games as road underdogs. The NFL Odds of 48 ½ are undervaluing the Ravens’ offense.

NFL Pick: OVER 48 ½

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Jets vs. Chargers
After getting beat in Week 4 by the Lions, the Jets have to travel across the country to play San Diego in Week 5, and the NFL Odds have the Chargers as -6 ½ favorites, with a total of 43 ½. Even though the Jets’ offense wasn’t at its peak last week, this total is very low. The Chargers should still be able to slice up the Jets’ defense through the air, and this could mean a much higher scoring game than the total suggests. The over has cashed in four of the last five home games for the Chargers, and the over has cashed at 5-2 for the Jets in their last seven games as a road underdog. Most importantly, 43 ½ is way too low for the Chargers. Through their last three games, the Jets are giving up an average of 288 passing yards per game, and Phillip Rivers should surpass that after nearly a 400-yard game in Week 4.

NFL Pick: OVER 43 ½

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Bengals vs. Patriots
While I don’t think I can give an answer on what is wrong with the Patriots, I can say that Tom Brady and the offense are having some issues. That being said, facing off against the Bengals in Week 5 will likely not be the time to fix their offense. Cincinnati has one of the league’s best defenses, and while their offense isn’t prolific, it gets the job done. However the NFL Odds have the total of this game at 46, which is a couple points higher than what it should be. The Patriots’ defense is good when their offense is actually giving them a chance, but either way the under looks solid. The Bengals have cashed the under in all three games this season, as well as their final game in 2013, cashing the under in four in a row. The under is also 4-0 in Cincinnati’s last four games following a SU win, and 17-3-1 following a SU win of 14 points or more. Considering this data, the under seems like the best way to go for Sunday Night Football NFL picks.

NFL Pick: UNDER 46

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