Free Week 3 NFL Picks: Steelers vs. Rams

David Lawrence

Friday, September 25, 2015 11:57 PM GMT

Friday, Sep. 25, 2015 11:57 PM GMT

Pittsburgh fought gamely in New England in their season opener, but couldn't get the job done and then took it out on San Francisco in their Week 2 home opener. St. Louis got past Seattle in overtime at home, then looked lethargic in Washington. Which versions of these two will we see on Sunday when the Rams host the Steelers?

Opening Odds & Line Movement
Open: -1 -105 at Pinnacle.
The NFL odds for this game opened at -1 for the Rams at home, then moved quickly to -1 for the Steelers on the road, then -1.5, then back to -1 for the Steelers. As of Thursday morning, it was back to -1 for the Rams as the line might have moved towards the Steelers due to the return of RB Le'Veon Bell, who sat out two games for a drug suspension. Bell was arguably the best back in the league over the second half of last season and his return adds another dimension to an already-potent attack for the Steelers, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see the line move back towards them, even on the road.

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Injuries
WR Martavius Bryant is still out for two more games because of his own suspension, but LB Ryan Shazier is a concern because of his shoulder. Shazier led the Steelers with 15 tackles and got a sack while forcing a fumble against the 49ers, and while he didn't practice on Wednesday, it'll take a lot to keep him out of the game.

RB Todd Gurley (knee) wasn't listed on the Rams' early-week injury report, which means the rookie might make his debut, but look for him to be eased into the lineup. DE Eugene Sims is still nursing an ailing knee, however, so that is worrying for the Rams.

 

Trends
Pittsburgh is 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games, but just 2-3-1 ATS in their last six on the road, while the Rams are 1-4 ATS in their last five, but 4-2 ATS in their last six at home. The total, which sits at 47.5, could be a good bet as each has gone under the total in four of their last six games.

The Steelers are 6-3 SU in nine games against the Rams since 1981, going 5-3 ATS during that time. The Rams are 2-1 SU and ATS in three home games against the Steelers, but just one of those were in St. Louis, and that was a win on both counts for Pittsburgh.

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