Free Thursday Night NFL Picks for Jets vs. Patriots

Jeff Grant

Wednesday, October 15, 2014 1:17 PM GMT

The New England Patriots are large favorites in the betting odds after capturing back-to-back underdogs victories, which makes the New York Jets the NFL Thursday Night pick at Gillette Stadium.

Downtrodden
New York is focused on avoiding its first six-game losing streak since 2007, which is important to consider when making your Week 7 NFL betting picks, as the squad attempts to bounce back from a 31-17 defeat to the Denver Broncos as 10-point home underdogs Sunday.

The Jets have been unable to get their running game going the last two weeks, as they’ve totaled just 122 yards over that period of time, which is far different than their 151.3 mark in their first four contests in 2014.

Over the last two-plus seasons, the franchise is 5-7 SU and 6-5-1 ATS against AFC East opponents, with the OVER going 7-4-1 in that situation.

 

Remember Me?
New England was left for dead after suffering a 41-14 blowout loss to the Kansas City Chiefs on Sept. 29, which has been reflected in the NFL odds the last two weeks—picking up SUATS underdog wins in those affairs.

Patriots signal-caller Tom Brady has played at a Pro Bowl level against the Bengals and Bills, as he completed 50 of 72 passes for 653 yards with six touchdowns and no interceptions.

It’s important to point out that the squad is 10-8 SU and 7-10-1 ATS after two or more consecutive wins since 2012.

 

Take Care of the Football
Geno Smith has turned the ball over 15 times in the opening quarter since the start of last season, which is why the Jets must establish the running attack, especially since it ran the football just 15 times against the Broncos.

The second-year signal-caller connected on just 32 of 68 passes for 447 yards and a touchdown with four interceptions in splitting his two games in this series a season ago.

 

Home-field Advantage
Brady has won 40 straight regular season home games against AFC opponents, which fits nicely with the team trying to win its sixth consecutive game against the Jets at Gillette Stadium in that type of role.

New England has posted the best intra-division record of any team in the league since the start of the 2001 campaign, but the underdog has managed to grab the cash in four of the last five meetings in this rivalry.

 

Prediction
I’m going to recommend that readers back the Jets as one of their top underdog NFL picks this week, as the Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last five games versus a team with a losing record.

New England will struggle to control the football due to the loss of leading rusher Stevan Ridley, while it also must replace its leader Jerod Mayo on the defensive end—both players sustaining season-ending injuries last week.

NFL Pick: New York Jets +9.5 (-107) at 5Dimes

 

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