Free Picks Week 12 NFL Player Props

Jordan Sharp

Sunday, November 24, 2013 3:14 PM GMT

Yesterday I released my team prop picks to kick off the latter third of the NFL season, and I am back only hours before kickoff to release my player prop picks.

All of these NFL Odds are courtesy of Bet365, and I think both of these player performance wagers have great value.

Player performance 

Just like playing wide receivers against the Eagles, or running backs against the Bears, the Arizona Cardinals are a team you always play the tight end. This week the Colts head into University of Phoenix stadium to play the Cardinals, and at Bet365, Coby Fleener has a receiving yards total of only 56.5 for our NFL prop picks

Fleener is coming off arguably his best game as a pro, where he hauled in eight catches for over 100 yards. Over his last two games, Fleener has been targeted over 20 times, and has 12 catches for 140 yards. Obviously most of that damage was done in last week’s game, but this week, Fleener should have just as much value. 

Check out the NFL Team Prop Picks that I did earlier~

So far this season through ten games, the Cardinals have given up over 880 receiving yards to opposing tight ends, which through ten games is over 200 yards more than the next most, given up by the Jaguars. The Cards have also given up 10 touchdowns to a tight end this season, which is good for an average of one per game. 

Fleener should have another big game like he did last week, and I think the over has great value to add to your NFL Picks. Andrew Luck should have to throw the ball some in this game, and without Reggie Wayne, Fleener has stepped up in certain places this season, I’m on the over. 

My Pick: Coby Fleener ‘Over’ 56.5 receiving yards (-125) 

Another guy I have my eye on this week is Shane Vereen. I picked him to score last week, and even though he didn’t get into the end zone, he still had a great game. This week with the Patriots back home against the Broncos, I see Vereen coming through this week, but only in the player performance realm.

Vereen’s total yards is set at a betting odds total of 83.5 from Bet365, and since this total represents rushing and receiving yards, I see the over once again having some value. Last week on only 34 snaps, Vereen had eight catches on 11 targets for 72 total yards. He only had one rushing attempt, but playing the Broncos this week, I expect Vereen to see more work, and even more targets. 

In the fantasy realm, the Broncos are giving up the 11th most fantasy points to running backs. This is so because of how many catches and yards through the air the Broncos have given up. Through playing with a lead so much this season, the Broncos have allowed 367 yards and five touchdowns to opposing running backs through the air, and that plays right into Vereen’s skill set. 

I see Vereen getting much more than 34 snaps this week, and if he can have eight catches on 34 snaps, if he gets closer to 50 this week, I think he is a great value to bet the over with. If New England has to play from behind, Vereen will be their go to tail back in catch up, or hurry up packages.

My Pick: Shane Vereen ‘Over’ 83.5 total yards (-130