Giants vs. Eagles
A week after getting their first SU win of the season, the Giants have to go on the road into Philadelphia to play the Eagles. The NFL Odds for this one favor the Eagles at -4 ½, with a total of well over 50 points. I think New York has become overvalued a bit after their first win, and the recent line movement taking points with the Giants has reflected that. However I think this is actually opening up some more value, and I am laying the -4 ½ with Philly.
The Eagles have won eight of the last ten meetings between these two teams overall, and they have been very good at home SU. The Giants on the other hand have not been very good in the past two years on the road. New York is 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games, and they have lost their last five road games in a row SU. Philadelphia is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall with the Giants, and even though the Eagles haven’t been great ATS at home, I think that may be one of the reasons they are undervalued here.
Michael Vick will be back (although he is admittedly not yet 100%) for the Eagles and with him under center, the Eagles’ offense should be able to score plenty of points against the Giants’ soft defense. Lay the points.
My Pick: Eagles -4 ½
Steelers vs. Raiders
The Steelers head out on the road this week, a week after getting a big win against the Ravens at home. Life doesn’t get any easier however, as they have to travel several thousand miles this week to play an Oakland Raiders team fresh off of their bye week. The NFL Odds opened in favor of the Steelers at -3, however late line movement has forced the spread down to -1 Steelers in some instances.
Not only do I think the Raiders’ money line is the way to go in this one, but I am taking the +3 that is left at sportsbooks like Bodog. Oakland is 4-2 ATS this season and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five overall meetings with the Steelers. Pittsburgh is only 4-11 ATS in their last 15 road games, and going cross-country to face a rested and very good defense is not going to end well for the Steelers. Pittsburgh has given up 22 sacks so far this season, and with the entire front seven of the Raiders active and ready to go for this game, it might be a long night for Ben Roethlisberger.
The only real concern for the Raiders is that right tackle Tony Pashos is doubtful for this game. This might really hurt the value of the Raiders’ run game, however, it does not really sway me from laying off this NFL pick. Take points and the moneyline with the Raiders in this one.
My Pick: Raiders +3 @ Bodog