Free NFL Week 8 Picks - Green Bay Packers vs Atlanta Falcons

Green Bay Packers player in action

Swinging Johnson

Thursday, October 27, 2016 10:04 PM UTC

Thursday, Oct. 27, 2016 10:04 PM UTC

The Green Bay Packers will travel to Atlanta to take on Matt Ryan and the Falcons this week. Let’s analyze this matchup, check the NFL odds, and cash a ticket.


Swinger’s Overall 2016 NFL Record: 16-15 (after Week 7)


Green Bay Packers vs Atlanta Falcons  

The Pack is back after a 10-day respite, courtesy of a Thursday night game followed by their bye week. In their last game before the bye, Green Bay took care of business when they hosted the Chicago Bears to the tune of a 26-10 victory. The Packers not only won the game but covered the five-point impost installed by the NFL betting odds makers and turned all those Packer backers, who included Green Bay in their NFL picks, into happy campers.

But perhaps the best piece of news coming out of their Week 6 win was that Aaron Rodgers finally played like…Aaron Rodgers! The Packers’ All-Pro signal caller tossed three touchdowns and 326 yards with no interceptions, leading his team to victory over their divisional rivals from the Windy City.

The Falcons are an offensive juggernaut this season with 32.1 points per game average, which is tops in the league. Julio Jones is making an impressive case as the premier wideout in the game today and Matt Ryan has rekindled the old Matty Ice swagger of old. However, in their last game, the team managed only two offensive touchdowns with Ryan hitting Jacob Tamme for a 17-yard strike and Tevin Coleman blazing his way into the end zone with a 30-yard scamper. Other than that it was a pedestrian day for this offense against a Chargers’ defense that ranks in the bottom third of points allowed. When the game ended, Atlanta fell 33-30 in overtime.

The Packers are the play here. Aaron Rodgers appears to have finally found his rhythm but he needs to understand that his athleticism is not what it once was and he cannot roll right, avoiding pursuing pass rushers, and hit his target 25 yards downfield with pinpoint accuracy as he once did. I believe he is realizing his new limitations but his natural ability and sound mechanics will still allow him to be a nightmare for opposing defenses when in the pocket. Rodgers offensive line has allowed 1.8 sacks/game, which ranks them 10th in the league, while the Falcons defense has 2.14 sacks per game, ranking them in the middle of the pack.

I don’t see the Atlanta pass rush as much of a problem and their secondary is lousy. The Falcons allow 28.4 PPG (27th) and that number should rise after Rodgers dissects this Atlanta defense. Yes, Ryan to Julio Jones is lethal to be sure but they have no running game which will allow the Packers’ defense to double team Jones and focus heavily on the passing game. And let’s not forget that not only is Green Bay well-rested but Atlanta has a divisional game against the Bucs on Thursday night which means they could be looking ahead four days in the future. Take the live dog here.


Free NFL Pick: Green Bay +3Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3011296, "sportsbooksIds":[93,19,1096,238,139], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]

comment here